Climate change affects everything along the Niobrara River Valley—including the river itself, the ecosystems around it, and the people who love it. Left unabated, it’ll continue to alter weather patterns, opportunities to enjoy the river, and the health of animals, plants, and people.
But the future is in our hands, and the story of climate change isn’t over. We can learn from nature, from each other, and from our history. In the past, people have worked hard to protect this place. Now, it’s time to do it again.
A legacy of stewardship
People have lived in the Niobrara River Valley since time immemorial. The Ponca, Lakota, Pawnee, and Omaha peoples all have deep ancestral ties to the Niobrara River Valley. Indigenous Peoples use stewardship practices informed by generations of knowledge and a close relationship to the land. These stewardship practices help ecosystems in the valley stay biodiverse and resilient.
Homesteaders and ranchers began moving into the Niobrara River Valley in the mid 1800s. People raised cattle and crops on the land, and built homes for themselves and their families. In the process, they also built deep connections to the land. They worked hard to care for this place, overcoming harsh conditions and extreme weather.
Many of the people living in the Niobrara River Valley today have connections to the land going back generations. Those generations worked hard to care for this place, and that tradition continues into the present day.
How can we build on this long legacy of protection to make sure future generations can also thrive in the face of climate change?
Climate change is reshaping the Niobrara, and what life is like for the people who love it. It has already warmed the Niobrara landscape, and it’s going to continue to cause changes. But if we take action now, we can prevent or delay many of the impacts.
What’s already happened?
One approach scientists take to measure climate change is to average all the temperatures recorded in a year. Then, they can compare that average to the average temperatures in other years. That way, we can see how temperatures are changing on a broad scale.
In Nebraska, average temperatures have already gotten around 1.6°F warmer since the early 1900s.1
And when we look at just wintertime temperatures, it’s warmed even more. Average wintertime temperatures went up by 2.6°F between 1910 and 2010.2
These might not sound like big increases, but they make a huge difference. It’s important to keep in mind the difference between climate and weather. You can think about it like the human body—the difference between feeling fine and having a fever is only a few degrees!
Amphibians, like this leopard frog, are especially threatened by changing conditions. [5]
NPS Photo
What will the future look like?
Climate change will continue to affect the Niobrara River Valley. Scientific models can tell us a lot about what kinds of climate change impacts we’re likely to see in the future. We can’t predict exactly how or when specific impacts will play out, but we do know that they’re coming.
We also know that the future depends on us. If people reduce our greenhouse gas emissions now, we can make a big difference.
In the future...
Things will keep getting hotter—but exactly how much depends on us. In Valentine, Nebraska, scientists predict that average temperatures could go up as much as 6.1°F by mid-century and 9.8°F by 2100.
But if we reduce our fossil fuel emissions, we can limit that change to 4.6°F by mid-century and 5.5°F by 2100. That’s still a big change, but it’s a lot less!3
Precipitation patterns will probably change. We can’t say for sure whether the Niobrara River Valley will get more or less precipitation each year in the future, but we do know that precipitation patterns will probably get more extreme. More intense storms dropping a lot of rain or snow will be followed by drier periods of drought.4
In a year, that can add up to the same amount of precipitation as before. But it makes a big difference—for people, for agriculture, and for wildlife. A few days of gentle rainstorms doesn’t feel the same as if all that rain fell in ten minutes!
Use the menu below to explore some of the other ways climate change is affecting the Niobrara River Valley.
Water quality: Climate change often makes water quality worse, because extreme storms cause runoff, which push pollutants into the river. This can include things like fertilizers and sediments, which can hurt animals like fish and make the water unsafe to drink.
Flooding: Climate change also changes the amount of water in the river. Extreme storms and quicker temperature changes can add a lot of water to the river at once, which can cause flooding—like the damage that caused the Spencer Dam to fail in 2019.
Drought: Because of climate change, there may also be less water in the river during dry periods. The Niobrara is mostly fed by water that’s stored underground in the Ogallala-High Plains aquifer. For there to be water in the river, the aquifer has to have water. It’s filled when rainwater falls on the ground above it and seeps into the soil. Less rainfall would mean less water in the river, once the water makes its way out of the aquifer and into the Niobrara.
There’s been concern about the water levels in the Ogallala-High Plains aquifer. People have been pumping water out of it faster than rain can replenish the water levels, which means there’s less water available for everyone. With climate change, more droughts will result in less water entering the aquifer, making the problem even more challenging.6
Recreation: All of this affects how you can enjoy the river! Low flows make the river shallower, which makes it harder to go boating, tubing, or rafting. Very high flows can cause flooding or be dangerously fast. Worse water quality can kill fish and game, making them less available for hunting and fishing.
Niobrara National Scenic River protects several kinds of wildlife that are federally threatened, or aren’t found anywhere else nearby. This makes climate impacts on these species even more important, since they’re already small populations. If they can’t adapt to extreme conditions, they may no longer be found in the Niobrara River Valley.
Trees like the paper birch and hybrid Smith Falls aspen are having trouble surviving as temperatures change. So far, paper birches have thrived in a cooler microclimate along the Niobrara. Climate change could push those temperatures out of their comfortable range.7
The hybrid aspens aren’t found anywhere other than the Niobrara River Valley, and climate change is hurting them, too. When winter temperatures get too warm, trees grow leaves earlier, only to get hurt when temperatures drop below freezing again.8 Climate change is making temperature extremes like those more common. Plus, more droughts and less consistent rainfall add stress to the trees’ lives, on top of the stress from extreme warm temperatures.
Birds like the endangered least tern and threatened piping plover build nests on the banks of the Niobrara River. But when river flows get too high, their eggs sometimes get swept out with the current. As climate change makes precipitation less predictable, river flows could get less predictable, too. This would make it harder for plovers and terns to build successful nests.9
Often, the people who notice changes in the climate first are the people who live closely with the land, including farmers and ranchers. Weather patterns and temperatures are different than they were before, and crops and animals that used to thrive here might not do as well anymore. That has huge effects on peoples’ livelihoods and the food systems that feed us all.
Climate change affects agriculture in many ways:
Changing weather conditions and temperatures alter where plants can survive
Temperature changes can affect livestock health and productivity
More intense droughts can make it harder to get crops and livestock the water they need
Extreme weather events can destroy crops and infrastructure
Extreme weather events can make it unsafe for workers to be outside
Park staff monitor the river and work to keep the ecosystem resilient.
NPS Photo - Missouri National Recreational River
Our response
At Niobrara National Scenic River, we’re working on helping ecosystems stay resilient in the face of climate change. Anything that keeps ecosystems strong, diverse, and healthy will help them withstand extreme conditions.
One way that park staff are doing this is through invasive species management. Invasive species often displace native plants and animals. As they do, ecosystems sometimes become less biodiverse. By removing invasives and preserving the abundance and diversity of native species, the ecosystems will be more able to withstand impacts from climate change.
We’re also working on measuring climate change impacts, so we can keep track of how things are changing. Park staff keep careful measurements of water levels and water quality in the river, and rainfall in the local area. This helps us better understand how climate change affects the river over a long period of time. It also helps us keep people safe when conditions are dangerous.
Climate change presents a serious problem. Many generations have cared for the Niobrara River Valley in the past. Now, it’s our turn to take action to protect present and future generations from the impacts of climate change.
Doing our part
NPS Photo - Glacier National Park
The National Park Service is working on reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and making a more eco-friendly park experience for visitors. The Green Parks Plan sets out ambitious goals for all parks nationwide to reduce their ecological impact and fight climate change.
Some highlights from the Green Parks Plan:
All parks will achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045
75% of trash in parks will be diverted to recycling or compost by 2030
Parks will make sure all eligible government cars are zero-emissions
Parks will talk to visitors and the public about sustainability and climate change!
Everyone can make a difference in our response to climate change. Think about what resources you have, or what you enjoy doing. Is there a connection between those things and climate action?
Here are some ways you can make a difference in your life and your community:
Share your thoughts about climate change with people around you. Tell them why you care! Your voice has an impact, especially in your community.
Reduce your carbon footprint—and then tell your family & friends what you did, and encourage them to try it too.
Be an active citizen, and share your opinions about climate change with your government representatives
Volunteer with Niobrara National Scenic River or with local organizations that help ecosystems stay healthy
Be a steward of the river! Take care of it and keep it clean. The more we care for the environment, the more resilient it will be against extreme conditions from climate change.
Frankson, R., K.E. Kunkel, L.E. Stevens, M. Shulski, N.A. Umphlett, and C.J. Stiles, 2022: Nebraska State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-NE. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp. https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/ne/
Payton, E.A., A.O. Pinson, T. Asefa, L.E. Condon, L.-A.L. Dupigny-Giroux, B.L. Harding, J. Kiang, D.H. Lee, S.A. McAfee, J.M. Pflug, I. Rangwala, H.J. Tanana, and D.B. Wright, 2023: Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/
Luedtke, Jennifer A., Janice Chanson, Kelsey Neam, Louise Hobin, Adriano O. Maciel, Alessandro Catenazzi, Amaël Borzée, Amir Hamidy, Anchalee Aowphol, Anderson Jean, et al. “Ongoing declines for the world’s amphibians in the face of emerging threats”. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06578-4
USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. Chapter 10: Agriculture and Rural Communities. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/#case-10_1
