Climate Change

Joshua Tree National Park has been getting hotter and drier over the past century in large part due to human-caused climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. In effect, this makes the planet hotter and changes the Earth’s climate systems. These changes lead to more heatwaves, major precipitation events, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and greater intensity of natural disasters like hurricanes, floods, droughts, and wildfires. Here in Joshua Tree, we are experiencing the effects of climate change. From 1895 to 2016, the annual precipitation dropped by 39 percent, and the average temperature increased by 3℉ (2℃). These changes impact our landscape, our species, and our visitors.

A dead Joshua tree lying on the ground

NPS / Brad Sutton

Fewer Joshua Trees

Our namesake species, the Joshua tree, has and will continue to feel the stress of hotter temperatures and drought conditions. At lower, warmer elevations, fewer seedlings are sprouting, growing, and surviving. By 2099 under the highest emissions scenario forecasted, the average annual temperature inside the park could increase by 8℉ (5℃). Research suggests that under these conditions, it could eliminate nearly all suitable habitat for Joshua trees in the park and reduce habitat in the Southwest by 90 percent. Even with lower emission scenarios, nearly 80 percent of suitable habitat in Joshua Tree could be lost. Check out the links at the bottom of the page for more information on this research.

Desert tortoise traveling across the desert floor
Desert tortoises have been on earth for an estimated 15-20 million years. They are currently classified as a threatened species.

NPS / Hannah Schwalbe

A Crossroads for Species

The changing climate also affects many of our animal species. Most evolved to survive in a hot, arid environment. However, they will now be forced to adapt, migrate, or perish. Desert bighorn sheep will lose lower elevation habitat and will need to migrate to higher and higher elevations. This will likely cause more genetic isolation than bighorn populations already face and could lead to them not being able to live in the park. The desert tortoise population has already plummeted due to habitat loss, disease, raven predation, and climate change. Scientific research suggests that an increase of 5℉ (3℃) could leave 80 percent of the park uninhabitable for them. Additionally, four reptile species could lose half of their suitable habitat: Blainville’s horned lizard, desert spiny lizard, night lizard, and northwestern fence lizard.

a grey bird with a yellow face perched on a branch
Verdin populations declined by 60 percent in North America from 1968-2015.

Photo: Danner Bradshaw

Declining Bird Populations

Bird populations across Joshua Tree and the Mojave Desert have been in sharp decline over the past century. This has been driven largely by climate change and the loss of habitat. Climate change causes desert regions to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecosystems across the US. Many bird species in the desert are already at the edge of their physiological limits and the reduction of surface water has been a major factor in their decline. Surveys conducted by UC Berkeley between 1908-1968 and 2013-2016 show bird species declined 43 percent in the Mojave Desert. In the lower 48 US states, winter bird ranges shifted 19 miles(30 kilometers) north between 1975 and 2004.

Desert Bighorn Sheep Ewe and Lamb
Due to persistent drought conditions, the 49 palms oasis trail now closes to visitors in the summer to allow Bighorn Sheep undisturbed access to the water.

NPS/Andrew Cattoir

Disappearing Water Sources

From 2006 to 2016, 60% of the springs with surface water in the park went dry. During the hotter summer months, springs often provide the only water source for many animals, from bighorn sheep to tree frogs. The vegetation found at springs serves as vital food and habitat. More than 75% of wildlife in the Mojave Desert heavily depend on spring and stream vegetation to survive.

Climate change models project changing precipitation patterns in California, including more prolonged periods of drought and more extreme precipitation events. During the summer of 2022, Death Valley National Park received a 1,000-year flood that closed every road and caused nearly 100 million dollars in damage.

Joshua trees burning during a wildfire
An estimated 1.3 million Joshua trees died during the Dome Fire in the Mojave National Preserve in 2020.

NPS Photo

More Fires

The park has also become increasingly prone to wildfires due to warmer, drier conditions. This problem has been made worse by the introduction of invasive plant species like red brome, a grass type that is able to quickly spread fire across the desert. If an area with Joshua trees burns through, most will not survive and reproduction in that area is made more difficult. Wildfires could also result in the loss of irreplaceable resources in the park, like historic structures and cultural artifacts.

A valley with blanketed in smog and surround by mountains.
Looking down from Key's View, air pollution blankets the Coachella Valley.

NPS / Robb Hannawacker

Impacts on Visitors

The causes and effects of climate change impose negative impacts on visitors. Joshua Tree suffers from air pollution and smog blowing into the park. Increased warming from climate change worsens the visibility from smog and air pollution, due to the chemistry of how smog reacts to heat. On an average day, visibility is reduced from 160 miles to 100 miles (257 kilometers to 161 kilometers). On a high pollution day, visibility is reduced to 55 miles (89 kilometers). This not only affects our views, it also affects soils, surface waters, plants, and human health. Smoke from regional, climate-fueled wildfires adds to poor air quality and creates a health hazard. Excessive heat contributes to heat-related illnesses and dehydration. With a hotter, drier climate, the changes to our biodiversity could lead to less wildlife sightings, fewer annual wildflowers, and far fewer Joshua trees dotting the landscape.

several Joshua trees of different shapes

NPS/Larry McAfee

What Are We Doing?

  • Educating the public on the causes and effects of climate change.
  • By 2030, converting all our facilities to solar power and all our gas-powered vehicles to electric.
  • Bolstering our defenses against wildfires and flash flooding and pre-planning emergency responses to these events.
  • Protecting Joshua tree "refugias", areas with higher elevations and more annual rainfall where Joshua trees may be able to survive.
  • Collaborating with researchers to understand the effects of climate change on plants and animals in the park. The Joshua Tree Climate Change Response Program includes researchers from UC Riverside Center for Conservation Biology, the California Desert Interagency Fire Program, USGS Western Ecological Research Center, Mojave Desert Native Plant Program, the Joshua Tree Genome Project, Joshua Tree National Park, and others. The team monitors these effects, designs conservation strategies, and implements stewardship actions.

A Brighter Future

The good news is there is still time to make a difference. We can prevent the most catastrophic consequences if we choose to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. It will require bold changes to how humans live on planet earth. This can be accomplished in many ways:

  • Convert to renewable energy sources (wind and solar) to power our homes and industries

  • Use more fuel-efficient transportation and electric vehicles

  • Utilize more energy-efficient appliances and heating/cooling systems

  • Reduce consumption, reuse goods, and recycle

  • Buy locally sourced food, reduce meat consumption, and cut down on food waste

  • Unite the global community in the effort to combat climate change

Will you help be part of the change?


Last updated: July 6, 2023

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Twentynine Palms, CA 92277-3597


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