Vulnerability Assessments

Species that are specially adapted to high elevations, like this whitebark pine tree, or cold weather and have narrow tolerance ranges are particularly sensitive to climate change.

NPS/Eric Johnston

Vulnerability assessments help us determine whether species and ecosystems will be harmed by climate change and why. Species and ecosystems respond differently to climate change, depending on the magnitude of the change, how sensitive the species or ecosystem is to that change, and to what degree they are exposed to stressful conditions. Vulnerability assessments are based on long-term monitoring trends and explore the different factors that impact species and ecosystems in order to help managers understand their responses in future climate conditions. There are three main components:

• Exposure is a measure of how much change in climate and associated impacts a species or ecosystem is likely to experience.
• Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a species or ecosystem is or is likely to be affected by or responsive to climate change.
• Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a species or ecosystem to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption. It is often likened to the concept of resilience. Read more about adaptive capacity.

Examples of vulnerability

Giant Sequoias and Climate

Sequoias are vulnerable to drought, which is also associated with native bark beetle activity and fire-related damage.

Boreal Forest Climate Sensitivity

Warmer summers and high competition with nearby trees can reduce growth in the boreal forest.

White Pines in Decline

White pines are threatened by multiple stressors, including climate change, that have led to sharp declines for several of these species.

Peatland Vulnerability to Climate Change

Climate change and human land use may cause peatlands to change from a carbon sink to a carbon source to the atmosphere.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessments

Climate change impacts on sea level, storm surge, and shoreline erosion present unique hazards for coastal communities and parks.

Landslide Risks in a Warming Climate

Infrastructure is vulnerable to the harsh conditions and extreme events associated with climate change.

More Vulnerability Assessment Resources

Other agency partners also have useful resources for climate change vulnerability, here are a few to check out:

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments, USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Atlas, USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Impacts, U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (a collaboration of multiple federal agencies)