2023 Weather in Review: Shenandoah National Park

NPS

In order to better understand ecosystem health in national parks, the Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network measures ecosystem "vital signs" across the Mid-Atlantic region. One of those vital signs is weather and climate. Below is a summary of 2023 weather conditions at Shenandoah National Park.

This brief provides county-scale weather data averaged from all of the counties surrounding the park, including data from 1895–2023 (i.e., period of record). These counties include Albemarle, Augusta, Greene, Madison, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, and Warren counties, VA.

Individual weather station data may vary from what is reported here. In particular, high elevations in the park may have experienced weather conditions that are different from those displayed in this brief. Data and analyses herein are courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate at a Glance Program.

Weather vs. Climate

First of all, what is the difference between weather and climate? Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere. Weather is what is happening outside at this very moment, be it rain, snow, or just a warm sunny day. Climate is what you expect to see based on long-term patterns of over 30 years or more. An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you might expect, like a hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a warm rainy day.

The following information includes a discussion of 2023 weather placed in the context of long-term climate (i.e., how did 2023 compare to a "normal" year?).

2023 Summary

In all, 2023 was the warmest year on record (since 1895) for the counties surrounding the park. Data indicate that over the long term, annual average temperature and annual total precipitation have both increased (+0.2 °F per decade and +0.38 inches per decade, respectively).

Temperature

In total, 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded in the counties surrounding the park, and all seasons except spring were warmer than normal (Figure 1). Ten months had higher than normal temperatures with January and February both being at least 9°F above long-term averages (Table 1).

Figure 1. Seasonal and annual temperature rankings. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the warmest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the coldest year/season on record. Winter = Jan–Mar, Spring = Apr–June, Summer = July–Sept, Autumn = Oct–Dec.

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_{Table 1. Monthly and annual average temperature and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2023 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2022.}

Month/Year	Average temperature (°F)	Departure from long-term average (°F)
January	41.3	+9.1
February	44.1	+10.0
March	45.5	+2.9
April	56.7	+4.4
May	60.0	−1.7
June	66.8	−2.6
July	75.9	+2.6
August	73.4	+1.8
September	67.3	+1.9
October	57.9	+3.4
November	44.6	+0.7
December	40.8	+5.9
2023	56.2	+3.2

Precipitation

The year 2023 was the 28^th driest year recorded across the park’s eight counties (Figure 2). All seasons were near normal or below normal for precipitation. In total, 36.1 inches of precipitation fell, 5.3 inches below long-term averages (Table 2).

Figure 2. Seasonal and annual precipitation rankings. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the wettest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the driest year/season on record. Winter = Jan–Mar, Spring = Apr–June, Summer = July–Sept, Autumn = Oct–Dec.

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_{Table 2. Monthly and annual total precipitation and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2023 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2022.}

Month/Year	Total precipitation (in.)	Departure from long-term average (in.)
January	1.86	−1.05
February	2.89	+0.37
March	1.59	−1.73
April	3.56	+0.27
May	2.34	−1.64
June	4.55	+0.41
July	4.66	+0.54
August	2.14	−1.96
September	4.04	+0.39
October	1.01	−2.39
November	2.90	0.00
December	4.50	+1.53
2023	36.06	−5.27

Temperature and Precipitation Trends
(1895-2023)

Data for counties surrounding the park indicate that annual average temperature has increased approximately +0.2°F per decade and annual total precipitation has increased approximately +0.38 inches per decade since 1895 (Figure 3).

National Park Service scientists have forecast future changes in climate too. Models estimate that by 2100, annual average temperature at the park will increase by 3.1–8.8°F (from a best-case to worst-case scenario, respectively). Annual total precipitation is expected to increase by 8–14% (see Gonzalez et al., 2018 for details).

Figure 3. Annual average temperature (°F) and annual total precipitation (in.) from 1895–2023 for counties surrounding the park. Dashed lines represent linear estimates of change.

Climate Change

Today's rapid climate change challenges national parks in ways we've never seen before. Wildlife migrations are altered, increasingly destructive storms threaten cultural resources and park facilities, habitat is disrupted—the list goes on. Learn more about climate change at Shenandoah National Park.


For more information, contact Mid-Atlantic Network Biologist, Jeb Wofford, or read more about the Mid-Atlantic Network's weather and climate monitoring program. Data included in this article were obtained from NOAA's NClimDiv dataset (version v1.0.0-20240105).

Download a printable version (pdf) of this article.