2023 Weather in Review: Flight 93 National Memorial
The Tower of Voices (NPS/Brenda Torrey)
In order to better understand ecosystem health in national parks, the Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network measures ecosystem "vital signs" in select national parks in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. One of those vital signs is weather and climate. Below is a summary of 2023 weather conditions at Flight 93 National Memorial.
First of all, what is the difference between weather and climate? Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere. Weather is what is happening outside at this very moment, be it rain, snow, or just a warm sunny day. Climate is what you expect to see based on long-term patterns of over 30 years or more. An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you might expect, like a hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a warm rainy day.
The following information includes a discussion of 2023 weather placed in the context of long-term climate (i.e., how did 2023 compare to a "normal" year?).
2023 Summary
In all, 2023 was nearly a record-setting warm year with precipitation that was just below normal. The year ended as the 2nd warmest and 48th driest on record (since 1895). Data indicate that over the long term, annual average temperature and annual total precipitation have both increased in Somerset County, PA (+0.1°F per decade and +0.41 inches per decade, respectively).
Temperature
In total, 2023 was the 2nd warmest year ever recorded at the park with all seasons except the spring being well above normal (Figure 1). Ten months had higher than normal temperatures with January, February, and December all being at least 8°F above long-term averages (Table 1).
Figure 1. Seasonal and annual temperature rankings for Somerset County, PA. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the warmest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the coldest year/season on record. Winter = Jan–Mar, Spring = Apr–June, Summer = July–Sept, Autumn = Oct–Dec. Table 1. Monthly and annual average temperature and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2023 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2022.
Month/Year
Average temperature (°F)
Departure from
long-term average (°F)
January
34.3
+9.3
February
36.1
+9.6
March
36.9
+1.4
April
50.1
+4.0
May
54.1
−2.5
June
61.5
−3.0
July
70.2
+1.9
August
67.2
+0.6
September
61.6
+1.2
October
52.4
+2.9
November
38.6
+0.1
December
36.7
+8.0
2023
50.0
+2.8
Precipitation
Total precipitation in Somerset County, PA, during 2023 was just below normal though the spring was particularly dry (Figure 2). In all, the year ranked as the 48th driest on record. In total, 42.5 inches of precipitation fell, which is 1.8 inches less than the long-term average (Table 2).
Figure 2. Seasonal and annual precipitation rankings for Somerset County, PA. An arrow at the top of the figure would represent the wettest year/season on record (since 1895); at the bottom, the driest year/season on record. Winter = Jan–Mar, Spring = Apr–June, Summer = July–Sept, Autumn = Oct–Dec. Table 2. Monthly and annual total precipitation and departure from long-term averages. Departures from average show how different 2023 was compared to relevant averages from 1895-2022.
Month/Year
Total precipitation (in.)
Departure from
long-term average (in.)
January
4.19
+0.71
February
2.88
−0.08
March
3.87
−0.04
April
2.75
−1.04
May
2.83
−1.44
June
4.57
+0.01
July
5.76
+1.43
August
4.15
+0.12
September
2.91
−0.59
October
3.42
+0.30
November
2.45
−0.57
December
2.68
−0.63
2023
42.46
−1.82
Temperature and Precipitation Trends
(1895-2023)
Data for Somerset County, PA indicate that annual average temperature has increased approximately 0.1°F per decade and annual total precipitation has increased approximately 0.41 inches per decade since 1895 (Figure 3).
National Park Service scientists have forecast future changes in climate too. Models estimate that by 2100, annual average temperature at the park will increase by 3.1–9.2°F (from a best-case to worst-case scenario, respectively). Annual total precipitation is expected to increase by 6–12% (see Gonzalez et al., 2018 for details).
Figure 3. Annual average temperature (°F) and annual total precipitation (in.) from 1895–2023 for Somerset County, PA. Dashed lines represent linear estimates of change.
Climate Change
Today's rapid climate change challenges national parks in ways we've never seen before. Wildlife migrations are altered, increasingly destructive storms threaten cultural resources and park facilities, habitat is disrupted—the list goes on. Go to the NPS Climate Change site to discover how climate change is affecting our nation's treasures, what the National Park Service is doing about it, and how you can help.
For more information, contact Mid-Atlantic Network Biologist, Jeb Wofford or Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network Program Manager, Matt Marshall. Data included in this article were obtained from NOAA's NClimDiv dataset (version v1.0.0-20240105).
