Climate Change References

This bibliography lists works describing modeled climate change and climate change impacts over the Southwest. Journal articles, government reports, book chapters, theses, and conference proceedings are included, but for the most part, technical reports and other grey literature are not. The grey literature that was included is in this list because it can be good background reading for the reader unfamiliar with the scope of climate change impacts. This list avoids overly speculative literature on potential climate change impacts, but, particularly in the case of impacts to water resources, quantitative modeling studies have not been conducted and so the information available is necessarily somewhat speculative.

So far, the articles pertaining to climate change impacts focus on impacts to water resources, vegetation shifts, and fire regimes. For most cases, particularly the research pertaining to snowpack, the articles use measured changes over the past few decades to suggest potential change in the future. Note that papers on climate change over the entire West do not necessarily include the Southwest in their analysis, and the papers that do show that trends in the Southwest do not always match trends in the rest of the West.

Adams, D. K. and A. C. Comrie. 1997. The North American Monsoon. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(10):2197-2213.

Allen, C. D. and D. D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 85:14839-14842.

Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, H. G. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B. D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A. W. Wood, T. Nozawa, A. A. Mirin et al. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080-1083.

Baron, J. S., L. Gunderson, C. D. Allen, E. Fleishman, D. McKenzie, L. A. Meyerson, J. Oropeza, and N. Stephenson. 2009. Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change. Environmental Management 44:1033-1042.

Bonfils, C., B. D. Santer, D. W. Pierce, H. G. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T. P. Barnett, D. R. Cayan, C. Doutriaux, A. W. Wood et al. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Journal of Climate21:6404-6424.

Breshears, D. D., N. S. Cobb, P. M. Rich, K. P. Prices, C. D. Allen, R. G. Balice, W. H. Romme, J. H. Kastens, M. L. Floyd, J. Belnap et al. 2005. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102(42):15144-15148.

Brown, J. H., T. J. Valone, and C. G. Curtin. 1997. Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94:9729-9733.

Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson. 1997. Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82(3):399-415.

Christensen, J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R. K. Kolli, W. - T. Kwon, R. Laprise et al. 2007. Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, ed., Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 847-940. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Christensen, N. S., A. W. Wood, N. Voisin, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. N. Palmer.2004. The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change 62:337-363.

Cook, E. R., C. A. Woodhouse, C. M. Eakin, D. M. Meko, and D. W. Stahle. 2004.Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306:1015-1018.

Coquard, J., P. B. Duffy, K. E. Taylor, and J. P. Iorio. 2004. Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models.Climate Dynamics 23:455-472.

Dean, J. S. 1994. The Medieval Warm Period on the southern Colorado Plateau.Climatic Change 26:225-241.

Diffenbaugh, N. S., J. S. Pal, R. J. Trapp, F. Giorgi, and S. H. Schneider. 2005. Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102(44):15774-15778.

Diffenbaugh, N. S., F. Giorgi, and J. S. Pal. 2008. Climate change hotspots in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 35:L16709.

Dominguez, F., J. Cañon, and J. Valdes. 2009. IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the southwestern US: the importance of future ENSO projections. Climatic Change Published online, 10 October 2009.

Ely, L. L., Y. Enzel, V. R. Baker, and D. R. Cayan. 1993. A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the southwestern United States. Science 262:410-412.

Goodrich, G. B. and A. W. Ellis. 2008. Climatic controls and hydrologic impacts of a recent extreme seasonal precipitation reversal in Arizona. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47:498-508.

Grimm, N. B., A. Chacon, C. N. Dahm, S. W. Hostetler, O. T. Lind, P. L. Starkweather, and W. W. Wurtsbaugh. 1997.Sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to climatic and anthropogenic changes: the Basin and Range, American Southwest and Mexico. Hydrological Processes 11:1023-1041.

Grissino-Mayer, H. D. 1996. A 2129-year reconstruction of precipitation for northwestern New Mexico, USA. In J. S. Dean, D. M. Meko and T. W. Swetnam, ed., Tree Rings, Environment and Humanity. Tucson, AZ: Radiocarbon.

Hereford, R., R. H. Webb, and S. Graham. 2002. Precipitation history of the Colorado Plateau region, 1900-2000. Flagstaff, AZ: U. S. Geological Survey.

Herweijer, C., R. Seager, E. R. Cook, and J. Emile-Geay. 2007. North American droughts of the last millennium.Journal of Climate 20:1353-1376.

Ironside, K. E. 2006. Climate change research in national parks; paleoecology, policy and modeling the future In Environmental Sciences and Policy. Flagstaff, AZ: Northern Arizona University.

Jansen, E., J. Overpeck, K. R. Briffa, J. - C. Duplessy, F. Joos, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. Olago, B. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, S. Rahmstorf et al. 2007. Palaeoclimate. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, ed., Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., 433-497. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson. 2009. Global change impacts in the United States. New York, NY: United States Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press.

Kelly, A. E. and M. L. Goulden. 2008. Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(33):11823-11826.

Knowles, N., M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan. 2006. Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States.Journal of Climate 19:4545-4599.

Lenart, M. 2007. Global warming in the Southwest: projections, observations and impacts. Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

Littell, J. S., D. McKenzie, D. L. Peterson, and A. L. Westerling. 2009. Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecological Applications 19(4):1003-1021.

McAfee, S. A. and J. L. Russell. 2008. Northern Annular Mode on spring climate in the western United States.Geophysical Research Letters 35:L17701.

Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse, C. A. Baisan, T. Knight, J. J. Lukas, M. K. Hughes, and M. W. Salzer. 2007. Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34:L10705.

Millar, C. I., N. L. Stephenson, and S. L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17(8):2145-2151.

Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. Lettenmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1):39-49.

Ni F, T. Cavazos, M. K. Hughes, A. C. Comrie, and G. Funkhouser. 2002. Cool season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000: comparison of linear and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology 22:1645-1662.

Palmer, M. A., D. P. Lettenmaier, N. L. Poff, S. L. Postel, B. Richter, and R. Warner. 2009. Climate change and river ecosystems: protection and adaptation options. Environmental Management 44:1053-1068.

Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B. D. Santer, G. Bala, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, A. Mirin et al. 2008. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Journal of Climate 21:6425-6444.

Poore, R. Z., M. J. Pavich, and H. D. Grissino-Mayer. 2005. Record of the North American southwest monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores. Geology 33(3):209-212.

Rahel, F. J. and J. D. Olden. 2008. Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species. Conservation Biology 22(3):521-533.

Regonda, S. K., B. Rajagopolan, M. Clark, and J. Pitlick. 2005. Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States. Journal of Climate 18:372-384.

Rehfeldt, G. E., N. L. Crookston, M. V. Warwell, and J. S. Evans. 2006. Analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. International Journal of Plant Sciences 167(6):1123-1150.

Salzer, M. W. and K. F. Kipfmueller. 2005. Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial timescale from tree-rings in the southern Colorado Plateau, U.S.A. Climatic Change 70:465-487.

Schwinning, S., J. Belnap, D. R. Bowling, and J. R. Ehleringer. 2008. Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to change: climate, ecosystems, and society. Ecology and Society 13(2):online.

Seager, R., M. Ting, I. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H. - P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N. - C. Lau et al. 2007.Model predictions of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316:1181-1184.


Sheppard, P. R., A. C. Comrie, G. D. Packin, K. Angersbach, and M. K. Hughes. 2002. The climate of the US Southwest. Climate Research 21:219-238.

Stewart, I. T., D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger. 2004. Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario. Climatic Change 62:217-232.

Swetnam, T. W. and J. L. Betancourt. 1990. Fire-southern oscillation relations in the southwestern United States.Science 249:1017-1020.

Swetnam, T. W. and J. L. Betancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11:3128-3147.

Weiss, J. L. and J. T. Overpeck. 2005. Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool? Global Change Biology 11:2065-2077.

Westerling, A. L., A. Gershunov, and T. J. Brown. 2003. Climate and wildfire in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(5):595-604.

Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940-943.

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