Publications

Thumbnail images of five various document covers
The NPS Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) provides expert knowledge, integrated support, and decision making frameworks that inform park management at all 423 NPS units and NPS programs. This overview summarizes published works featuring significant contributions from CCRP. You can also search publications by topic or other criteria on the NPS Data Store.

Publications are grouped by year, and each panel can be expanded with a click. Names emphasized in bold are current CCRP employees (or were employees at the time of preparation).

Publications by year

Runyon, A. N., J. E. Gross, G. W. Schuurman, D. J. Lawrence, and J. H. Reynolds. 2024. Methods for assessing climate change exposure for national park planning. Park Resource Report PRR—2024/02. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Reynolds, J. H., B. W. Miller, G. W. Schuurman, W. A. Carr, A. J. Symstad, J. E. Gross, & A. N. Runyon. 2024. Accurately Characterizing Climate Change Scenario Planning in the U.S. National Park Service: Comment on Murphy et al. 2023Society & Natural Resources.

Schuurman, G. W., A. N. Runyon, B. C. Robb, M. Hylton III, and J. P. Wright. 2024. Resource stewardship objectives and actions for climate change-sensitive cultural and natural resources in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Outputs from January–February 2022 climate change adaptation strategy development. Natural Resource Report NPS/WRST/NRR—2024/2614. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Runyon, A. N., G. W. Schuurman, B. C. Robb, J. Littell, M. E. Miller, and J. H. Reynolds. 2024. Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning. Natural Resource Report NPS/WRST/NRR—2024/2613. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Lawrence, D. J., M. Tercek, A. Runyon, and J. Wright. 2024. Historical and projected climate change for Grand Canyon National Park and surrounding areas. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2024/2615. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Stein, B. A., J. A. Cushing, S. T. Jackson, M. Cross, W. Foden, L. M. Hallett, S. M. Hagerman, L. J. Hansen, J. J. Hellmann, D. Magness, G. F. Mendoza, C. Newsome, A. Pathak, S. M. Prober, J. H. Reynolds, and E. S. Zavaleta. 2024. Innovation in Climate Adaptation: Harnessing Innovation for Effective Biodiversity and Ecosystem Adaptation. Washington, DC: National Wildlife Federation

Schuurman, G. W., C. L. Hoving, A. N. Hess, L. V. Bristow, P. J. Delphey, J. J. Hellmann, H. L. Keough, R. L. Knutson, and A. Kellner. 2023. Blue snowflakes in a warming world: Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis and best practices for adaptation. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2023/2602. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

Star, J., & W. Carr. 2023. Using scenarios for climate informed fire management planning at Lassen Volcanic National Park: Workshop report—June 9 & 10, 2021. Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Ward, N.K., A.J. Lynch, E.A. Beever, J. Booker, K.L. Bouska, H. Embke, J.N. Houser, J.F. Kocik, J. Kocik, D.J. Lawrence, ...J.L. Wilkening. 2023. Reimagining large river management using the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework in the Upper Mississippi River. Ecological Processes 12(48).

Miller, B.W., M.J. Eaton, A.J. Symstad, G.W. Schuurman, I. Rangwala, W.R. Travis. 2023. Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change. Biological Conservation, 110275.

Booth, R.K., G.W. Schuurman, E.A. Lynch, M.G. Huff, J.A. Bebout, and N.M. Montano. 2023. Paleoecology provides context for conserving culturally and ecologically important pine forest and barrens communitiesEcological Applications e2901.

Buttke, D.E., B. Raynor, and G.W. Schuurman. 2023. Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitorsPloS one18(8), p.e0288812.

Reynolds, J., M. E. Miller, A. Runyon, G. W. Schuurman, J. Littell, P. J. Sousanes, T. Olliff, L. Perez, W. Carr, D. Lawrence, and J. Wright. 2023. Planning for future climates at Wrangell-St. Elias: Mainstreaming park-based actions. Alaska Park Science, 22(1): 110-127.

Tercek, M. T., J. E. Gross, & D. P. Thoma. 2023. Robust projections and consequences of an expanding bimodal growing season in the western United States. Ecosphere14(5), e4530.

Thompson, L.M., L.L. Thurman, C.N. Cook, E.A. Beever, C.M. Sgrò, A. Battles, C.A. Botero, J.E. Gross, K.R. Hall, A.P. Hendry, A.A. Hoffmann, C. Hoving, O.E. LeDee, C. Mengelt, A.B. Nicotra, R.A. Niver, F. Pérez-Jvostov, R.M. Quiñones, G.W. Schuurman, … A. Whiteley. (2023). Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change. Conservation Science and Practice, e12855.

Trammel, E.J., M. Carlson, J.H. Reynolds, J.J. Taylor, N.M. Schmidt. 2022. Ecological integrity and conservation challenges in a rapidly changing Arctic: a call for new approaches in large intact landscapesAmbio 51(12), 2524-2531.

Schmidt, J.H., W. Thompson, T. Wilson, J.H. Reynolds. 2022. Distance sampling surveys: using components of detection and total error to select among approaches. Wildlife Monographs.
 
Schmidt, J.H., M.D. Cameron, K. Joly, J.M. Pruszenski, J.H. Reynolds, M.S. Sorum. 2022. Bayesian spatial modeling of moose count data: increasing estimator efficiency and exploring ecological hypothesesJournal of Wildlife Management 86:e22220.

Thurman, L.L., J.E. Gross, C. Mengelt, E.A. Beever, L.M. Thompson, G.W. Schuurman, C.L. Hoving, and J.D. Olden. 2022. Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate. Conservation Biology 36:e13838.

Olliff, T., D. Thoma, M. Cross, A. Rodman, P. Barry, D. Lawrence, S. Barndt, A. Ray, M. Tercek, J. Christensen, J. Peterson, and D. Diamond. 2022. Greater Yellowstone climate-aquatics workshop: Report from the April 27–29, 2021, climate-smart conservation workshop. Natural Resource Report NPS/YELL/NRR—2022/2479. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Wright, J.P. and M. Hylton III. 2022. Plan the work, work the plan: An introduction to the National Park Service Climate, Science, and Disaster Response Program. Parks Stewardship Forum, 38(3).

Peek, K.M., B.R. Tormey, H.L. Thompson, R.L. Beavers, A.C. Ellsworth, and C. Hawkins Hoffman (editors). 2022. Climate change vulnerability assessments in the National Park Service: An integrated review for infrastructure, natural resources, and cultural resources (revised). Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2022/2438. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Gross, J.E., B.R. Tormey, K. McDowell Peek, H.L. Thompson, J.L. Michalak, and R.S. Young. 2022. Overview and synthesis of National Park Service vulnerability assessments. Pages 1-25 in K. M. Peek, B. R. Tormey, H. L. Thompson, A. C. Ellsworth, and C. H. Hoffman, editors. Climate change vulnerability assessments in the National Park Service: An integrated review for infrastructure, natural resources, and cultural resources. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2022/2404, National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Littell, J., G.W. Schuurman, J. Reynolds, J.M. Morton, and N. Schmitt. 2022. A RADical approach to conservation in Alaska: rapid climate change requires a new perspective. The Wildlife Professional.
 
Michalak, J.L., J.J. Lawler, J.E. Gross, M.C. Agne, R.L. Emmet, H.-W. Hsu, and V. Griffey. 2022. Climate-change vulnerability assessments of natural resources in U.S. National Parks. Conservation Science and Practice 4:e12703.

Schuurman, G.W., B.W. Miller, A.J. Symstad, A.N. Runyon, and B.C. Robb. 2022. Overcoming "analysis paralysis" through better climate change scenario planning. Park Science 36(1).

Dunham, J., J.R. Benjamin, D.J. Lawrence, and K. Clifford. 2022. Resist, accept, and direct responses to biological invasions: a social-ecological perspective. Fisheries Management and Ecology.

Lynch, A.J., F.J. Rahel, D. Limpinsel S.A. Sethi, A.C. Engman, D.J. Lawrence, K.E. Mills, W. Morrison, J.O. Peterson, and M.T. Porath. 2022. Ecological and social strategies for managing fisheries using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. Fisheries Management and Ecology.

Michalak, J.L., J.J. Lawler, J.E. Gross, M.C. Agne, R.L. Emmet, H.-W. Hsu, and V. Griffey. 2022. Climate-change vulnerability assessments of natural resources in U.S. National Parks. Conservation Science and Practice, e12703.

Miller, B.W., G.W. Schuurman, A.J. Symstad, A.N. Runyon, and B.C. Robb. 2022. Conservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks. Conservation Science and Practice, e12633.

Schuurman, G.W., D.N. Cole, A.E. Cravens, S. Covington, S.D. Crausbay, C. Hawkins HoffmanD.J. Lawrence, D.R. Magness, J.M., Morton, E.A. Nelson, and R. O'Malley. 2021. Navigating Ecological Transformation: Resist–Accept–Direct as a Path to a New Resource Management ParadigmBioScience biab067.

Magness, D.R., L. Hoang, R.T. Belote, J. Brennan, W. Carr, F.S. Chapin III, K. Clifford, W. Morrison, J.M. Morton, and H.R. Sofaer. Management Foundations for Navigating Ecological Transformation by Resisting, Accepting, or Directing Social–Ecological ChangeBioScience biab083.

Lynch, A.J., L.M. Thompson, J.M. Morton, E.A. Beever, M. Clifford, D. Limpinsel, R.T. Magill, D.R. Magness, T.A. Melvin, R.A. Newman, M.T. Porath, F.J. Rahel, J.H. ReynoldsG.W. Schuurman, S.A. Sethi, and J.L. Wilkening. RAD Adaptive Management for Transforming EcosystemsBioScience biab091.

Crausbay, S.D., H.R. Sofaer, A.E. Cravens, B.C. Chaffin, K.R. Clifford, J.E. Gross, C.N. Knapp, D.J. Lawrence, D.R. Magness, A.J. Miller-Rushing, G.W. Schuurman, and C.S. Stevens-Rumann. A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological TransformationBioScience biab102.

Thoma, D.P., J.E. Gross, M.T. Tercek, and J.N. Christensen. 2021. How dry will parks get? Water deficit tells us. Park Science 35(1).

Kim, S. and M. Hylton III. 2021. Sea-Level-Rise Modeling and Impact Assessment for Historic Coastal Communities. APT Bulletin: The Journal of Preservation Technology 52(2/3):25-34. 

National Park Service. 2021. Coming to Terms with Climate Change: Working Definitions, v1.0. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Thurman L.L., J.E. Gross, C. Mengelt, E.A. Beever, L.M. Thompson, G.W. Schuurman, C.L Hoving, and J.D. Olden. Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate. Conservation Biology (pre-print beta available online 2021 October 8).

Michalak, J.L., J.J. Lawler, J.E. Gross, and C.E. Littlefield. 2021. A strategic analysis of climate vulnerability of national park resources and values. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2021/2293. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Buttke, D., M. Wild, R. Monello, G.W. Schuurman, M. Hahn, and K. Jackson. 2021. Managing Wildlife Disease Under Climate Change. EcoHealth (published online 2021 August 31).

Roberts, R., M. Holly, and L. Perez. 2021. Categorizing Online Climate Change Interpretation Across the National Park System. Journal of Interpretation Research 26(1):6-23.

Tercek, M.T, D. Thoma, J.E. Gross, K. Sherrill, S. Kagone, and G.B. Senay. 2021. Historical changes in plant water use and need in the continental United States. PLoS ONE 16(9):e0256586.

Lawrence, D.J., A.N. Runyon, J.E. Gross, G.W. Schuurman, and B.W. Miller. 2021. Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning. Climatic Change 167:38.

Karasov-Olson, A., M.W. Schwartz, S.A. Skikne, J.J. Hellmann, J.D. Olden, D.J. Lawrence, J.T. Morisette, G.W. Schuurman, S. Allen, C.A. Brigham, D. Buttke, A.J. Miller-Rushing, M. Trammell, and C. Hawkins Hoffman. 2021. Co-development of a risk assessment strategy for managed relocation. Ecological Solutions and Evidence 2:e12092.

Thompson, L.M., A.J. Lynch, E.A. Beever, A.C. Engman, J.A. Falke, S.T. Jackson, T.J. Krabbenhoft, D.J. Lawrence, D. Limpinsel, R.T. Magill, T.A. Melvin, J.M. Morton, R.A. Newman, J.O. Peterson, M.T. Porath, F.J. Rahel, S.A. Sethi, and J.L. Wilkening. 2021. Responding to Ecosystem Transformation: Resist, Accept, or Direct? Fisheries 46:8-21.

Runyon A.N.G.W. Schuurman, B.W. Miller, A.J. Symstad, and A.R. Hardy. 2021. Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park: Climate change scenario planning summary. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/NRR—2021/2274. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Lynch, A.J., L.M. Thompson, E.A. Beever, D.N. Cole, A.C Engman, C. Hawkins Hoffman, S.T. Jackson, T.J. Krabbenhoft, D.J. Lawrence, D. Limpinsel, R.T. Magill, T.A. Melvin, J.M. Morton, R.A. Newman, J.O. Peterson, M.T. Porath, F.J. Rahel, G.W. Schuurman, S.A. Sethi, and J.L. Wilkening. 2021. Managing for RADical ecosystem change: applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 19(8):461-469.

Cook, C.N., E.A. Beever, L.L. Thurman, L.M. Thompson, J.E. Gross, A.R. Whiteley, A.B. Nicotra, J.A. Szymanski, C.A. Botero, K.R. Hall, A.A. Hoffmann, G.W. Schuurman, and C.M. Sgrò. 2021. Supporting the adaptive capacity of species through more effective knowledge exchange with conservation practitioners. Evolutionary Applications, 14, 1969-1979.

Kueppers, L., J.K. Gilless, P. Gonzalez, T.M. Hill, E. Margulies, and T.B. Pathak. 2021. Expanding Climate Action Through Nature-Based Solutions. California Natural Resources Agency, Sacramento, CA.

Benjamin, P., G.W. Schuurman, D. Bustos, M.H. Reiser, T. Olliff, and A. Runyon. 2021. Climate change scenario planning to guide research and resource management at White Sands National Park. Natural Resource Report NPS/WHSA/NRR—2021/2261. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

National Park Service (NPS). 2021. Planning for a Changing Climate: Climate-Smart Planning and Management in the National Park Service. NPS Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, CO.

Tercek, M.T., A. Rodman, S. Woolfolk, Z. Wilson, D. Thoma, and J. Gross. 2021. Correctly applying lapse rates in ecological studies: comparing temperature observations and gridded data in Yellowstone. Ecosphere 12:e03451.

Karasov-Olson, A., M.W. Schwartz, J.D. Olden, S. Skikne, J.J. Hellmann, S. Allen, C. Brigham, D. Buttke, D.J. Lawrence, A.J. Miller-Rushing, J.T. Morisette, G.W. Schuurman, M. Trammell, and C. Hawkins Hoffman. 2021. Ecological risk assessment of managed relocation as a climate change adaptation strategy. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2021/2241. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Booth R.K., M.G. Huff, J.A. Bebout, E.A. Lynch, G.W. Schuurman. 2021. Fire, vegetation, and water-level history from the Stockton Island tombolo: Apostle Islands National Lakeshore. NPS/APIS/NRR—2021/2221. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Schuurman, G.W., C. Hawkins Hoffman, D. N. Cole, D. J. Lawrence, J. M. Morton, D. R. Magness, A. E. Cravens, S. Covington, R. O'Malley, N. A. Fisichelli. 2020. Resist-accept-direct (RAD)—a framework for the 21st-century natural resource manager. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2020/ 2213. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Batllori et al. (including P. Gonzalez). 2020. Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 117: 29 720-29 729.

Weltzin, J. F., J. L. Betancourt, B. I. Cook, T. M. Crimmins, C. A. F. Enquist, M. D. Gerst, J. E. Gross, G. M. Henebry, R. A. Hufft, M. A. Kenney, J. S. Kimball, B. C. Reed, and S. W. Running. 2020. Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change. Climatic Change 163:1755-1771.

Perez, L., and M. Holly. 2020. How to counter Debbie DownerLegacy 31(4): 13–15.
 
Thurman, L. L., B. A. Stein, E. A. Beever, W. Foden, S. R. Geange, N. Green, J. E. Gross, D. J. Lawrence, O. LeDee, J. D. Olden, L. M. Thompson, B. E. Young. 2020. Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate changeFrontiers in Ecology and the Environment 18(9):520-528.

Battaglin, W., L. Hay, D. J. Lawrence, G. McCabe, P. Norton. 2020. Baseline conditions and projected future hydro-climatic change in national parks in the conterminous United States. Water 12(6): 1704.

Van Dusen, P., B. Rajagopalan, D.J. Lawrence, L.E. Condon, G. Smillie, S. Gangopadhyay, T. Pruitt. 2020. 21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park ServiceClimate Risk Management 28: 100211.

Gonzalez, P. 2020. Human-caused climate change in United States national parks and solutions for the future. Parks Stewardship Forum 36(2): 188–210.

Littell, J. S., J. H. Reynolds, K. K. Bartz, S. A. McAfee, and G. Hayward. 2020. So goes the snow: Alaska snowpack changes and impacts on Pacific salmon in a warming climate. Alaska Park Science 19(1): 62-75.

Handler, S. et al. (including G.W. Schuurman). 2020. Climate change vulnerability assessment for terrestrial ecosystems at Apostle Islands National Lakeshore. Natural Resource Report NPS/APIS/NRR—2020/2121. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Perez, L., A. Delorey, M. Nelson, R. Stubblebine, and M. Holly. 2020. Every Kid in a Park Climate Change Academies: Notes from the field. Parks Stewardship Forum 36(2): 226-232.

Runyon, A. N., A. R. Carlson, J. E. Gross, D. J. Lawrence, & G.W. Schuurman. 2020. Repeatable approaches to work with scientific uncertainty and advance climate change adaptation in US national parks. Parks Stewardship Forum, 36(1).

Schmitt, C., C. Brigham, N. Fisichelli, A. J. Miller-Rushing, K. Nydick, T. Watkins, & M. A. Wood. 2020. National park research fellowships increase capacity and creativity in responding to climate change. Parks Stewardship Forum, 36(1).

Barnett, D. T., P. A. Duffy, D. S. Schimel, R. E. Krauss, K. M. Irvine, F. W. Davis, J. E. Gross, E. I. Azuaje, A. S. Thorpe, D. Gudex-Cross, M. Patterson, J. M. McKay, J. T. McCorkel, and C. L. Meier. 2019. The terrestrial organism and biogeochemistry spatial sampling design for the National Ecological Observatory Network. Ecosphere 10(2):e02540.10.1002/ecs2.2540

Lawrence, D. J., and A. N. Runyon. 2019. Implications of climate change for the water supply of the Chisos Mountains developed area: Big Bend National Park technical assistance request 4945. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2019/2045. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Ricci, G., D. Robadue, Jr., P. Rubinoff, A. Casey, and A. L. Babson. 2019. Integrated coastal climate change vulnerability assessment: Colonial National Historical Park. Natural Resource Report NPS/COLO/NRR—2019/1945. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Ricci, G., D. Robadue, Jr., P. Rubinoff, A. Casey, and A. L. Babson. 2019. Method for integrated coastal climate change vulnerability assessment. Natural Resource Report NPS/NER/NRR—2019/1933. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Roberts, R., L. Perez, and M. Wood. 2019. Climate Change Response Program internship assessment. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Schuurman, G. W., A. Symstad, B. W. Miller, A. N. Runyon, and R. Ohms. 2019. Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship: Applying a novel approach in Devils Tower National Monument. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2019/2052. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Gonzalez, P., F. Wang, M. Notaro, D.J. Vimont, and J.W. Williams. 2018. Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks. Environmental Research Letters 13: 104001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aade09.

Gonzalez, P., G.M. Garfin, D.D. Breshears, K.M. Brooks, H.E. Brown, E.H. Elias, A. Gunasekara, N. Huntly, J.K. Maldonado, N.J. Mantua, H.G. Margolis, S. McAfee, B.R. Middleton, and B.H. Udall, 2018: Southwest. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 1101–1184. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH25

Hollesen, J., M. Callanan, T. Dawson, R. Fenger-Nielsen, T. M. Friesen, A. M. Jensen, A. Markham, V. V. Martens, V. V. Pitulko & M. Rockman. Climate change and the deteriorating archaeological and environmental archives of the Arctic. Antiquity 92(363): 573-586.

Lempert, R., J. Arnold, R. Pulwarty, K. Gordon, K. Greig, C. Hawkins Hoffman, D. Sands, and C. Werrell, 2018: Reducing Risks Through Adaptation Actions. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 1309–1345. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH28

Wu, J.X., C. Wilsey, L. Taylor, and G.W. Schuurman. 2018. Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System. PLOS ONE.

Ackerly, D., J. Battles, V. Butsic, P. Gonzalez, M. Kelly, W. Silver, D. Saah, S. Di Tommaso, A. Mayer, D. Moanga, I. Schroeter, and B. Riordan. 2018. Land Acquisition and Ecosystem Carbon in Coastal California. California Fourth Climate Change Assessment report CCCA4-EXT-2018-003. Climate Readiness Institute, University of California, Berkeley, CA.

D. Hardy, H. Lazrus, M. Mendez, B. Orlove, I. Rivera-Collazo, J. T. Roberts, M. Rockman, K. Thomas, B. P. Warner, R. Winthrop. (2018). Social vulnerability: Social science perspectives on climate change, part 1. Washington, DC: USGCRP Social Science Coordinating Committee.

Barnosky, A.D., E.A. Hadly, P. Gonzalez, J. Head, P.D. Polly, A.M. Lawing, J.T. Eronen, D.D. Ackerly, K. Alex, E. Biber, J. Blois, J. Brashares, G. Ceballos, E. Davis, G.P. Dietl, R. Dirzo, H. Doremus, M. Fortelius, H. Greene, J. Hellmann, T. Hickler, S.T. Jackson, M. Kemp, P.L. Koch, C. Kremen, E.L. Lindsey, C. Looy, C.R. Marshall, C. Mendenhall, A. Mulch, A.M. Mychajliw, C. Nowak, U. Ramakrishnan, J. Schnitzler, K.D. Shrestha, K. Solari, L. Stegner, M.A. Stegner, N.C. Stenseth, M.H. Wake, and Z. Zhang. 2017. Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems. Science 355: 594. doi:10.1126/science.aah4787.

Gonzalez, P. 2017. Climate change trends, impacts, and vulnerabilities in US national parks. In Beissinger, S.R., D.D. Ackerly, H. Doremus, and G.E. Machlis (eds.) Science, Conservation, and National Parks. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

Ricci, G., D. Robadue, Jr., and A. L. Babson. 2017. Designing and scoping climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal national parks in the northeast region: Guidance and lessons learned. Natural Resource Report NPS/NER/NRR—2017/1426. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Symstad, A.J., N.A. Fisichelli, B.W. Miller, E. Rowland, and G.W. Schuurman. 2017. Multiple methods for multiple futures: strengthening the integration of qualitative scenario planning with quantitative simulation modeling. Climate Risk Management 17:78-91.

Hambrecht, G., & Rockman, M. (2017). International Approaches to Climate Change and Cultural Heritage. American Antiquity, 82(4), 627-641. doi:10.1017/aaq.2017.30

Rockman, M. and J. Maase. 2017. Every Place has a Climate Story: Finding and Sharing Climate Change Stories with Cultural Heritage. Pages 107-114 in Dawson, T., C. Nimura, E.L. Romero and M. Daire (editors), Public Archaeology and Climate Change. Oxbow Books, Oxford, UK.

Miller, B., A.J. Symstad, L. Frid, N.A. Fisichelli, and G.W. Schuurman. 2017. Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota. Ecosphere 8(12):e02020. 10.1002/ecs2.2020.

Paloski, R.A., E.T. Hileman, G.C. Mayer, and G.W. Schuurman. 2017. Geographic distribution: Thamnophis radix. Herpetological Review 48:591-592.

Badje, A.F., T.J. Brandt, T.L. Bergeson, R.A. Paloski, J.M. Kapfer, and G.W. Schuurman. 2016. Blanchard’s cricket frog Acris Blanchardi overwintering ecology in southwestern Wisconsin. Herpetological Conservation and Biology 11:101-111.

Early, R., B.A. Bradley, J.S. Dukes, J.J. Lawler, J.D. Olden, D.M. Blumenthal, P. Gonzalez, E.D. Grosholz, I. Ibañez, L.P. Miller, C.J.B. Sorte, and A.J. Tatem. 2016. Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities. Nature Communications 7: 12485. doi:10.1038/ncomms12485.

Fisichelli, N.A., G.W. Schuurman, and C. Hawkins Hoffman. 2016. Is 'resilience' maladaptive? Towards an accurate lexicon for climate change adaptation. Environmental Management 57:753-758.

Fisichelli N.A., G.W. Schuurman, A. Symstad, A. Ray, J. Friedman, B. Miler, E. Rowland. 2016. Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/NRR—2016/1262. National Park Service. Fort Collins, CO.

Fisichelli N.A., G.W. Schuurman, A. Symstad, A. Ray, B. Miller, M. Cross, E. Rowland. 2016. Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/NRR—2016/1289. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado

Guay, K., P. Jantz, J.E. Gross, B.M. Rogers, S.J. Goetz. 2016. Historical and projected climates as a basis for climate change exposure and adaptation potential across the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Pages 78-94 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Gross, J.E., and T. Olliff. 2016. Linking climate science with management. Pages 17-32 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Gross, J.E., M. Tercek, K. Guay, M. Talbert, T. Chang, A. Rodman, D. Thoma, P. Jantz, J.T. Morisette. 2016. Historical and projected climate analyses to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains. Pages 55-77 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Gross, J.E., S. Woodley, L. Welling, and J.E.M. Watson. 2016. Adapting to climate change: Guidance for protected area managers and planners. IUCN World Commission for Protected Areas, Best Practice Guidelines No. 24.

A. Hansen, D. Theobald, S. T. Olliff, and B. Monihan. 2016. Conclusion: Synthesis, Lessons Learned, Next Steps Pages 354-367 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Hellmann, J.J., R. Grundel, C. Hoving, and G.W. Schuurman. 2016. A call to insect scientists: challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change. Current Opinion in Insect Science 17:92-97.

Hunter, Jr., M, P. Barton, A. Calhoun, and 15 others (incl. J.E. Gross). 2016. Two roles for ecological surrogacy: indicator surrogates and management surrogates. Ecological Indicators 63:121-125.

Monahan, W.B., A. Rosemartin, K. Gerst, N. Fisichelli, T. Ault, M. Schwartz, J Gross, J Weltzin. 2016. Climate change is advancing spring onset across the US national park system. Ecosphere, 7:e01465.

Olliff, S.T. and A. Hansen. 2016. Challenges and approaches for integrating climate science into federal land management Pages 33-52 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Olliff, S.T., B. Monahan, V. Kelly and D. Theobald. 2016. Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities To Achieving Climate Smart Adaptation Pages 259-278 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Olliff, S.T., R. Mordecai, J. Cakir, B.S. Thatcher, G.M. Tabor, S.P. Finn, H. Morris, Y. Converse, A. Babson, B. Monahan, and E. Haubold. 2016. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Working beyond boundaries to tackle large-scale conservation challenges. Invited paper, The George Wright Forum Special Issue on Landscape Conservation. Volume 33:2.

Theobald, D.M., W.B. Monahan, D. Harrison-Atlas, A.J. Hansen, P. Jantz, J.E. Gross, and S.T. Olliff. 2016. Assessing vulnerability to land use and climate change at landscape scales: landforms and physiographic diversity as coarse-filter targets representing species and processes. Pages 95-115 in A. Hansen, D. Theobald, T. Olliff, and W.B. Monahan (editors), Climate change in Wildlands: Pioneering approaches to science and management. Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Beever, E.A., J. O’Leary, C. Mengelt, J. West, S. Julius, N. Green, D. Magness, L. Petes, B. Stein, A.B. Nicotra, J. Hellmann, A.L. Robertson, E. Babij, J. Brennan, G.W. Schuurman, and G.E. Hofmann. 2015. Improving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ Fundamental and Realized Adaptive Capacity. 2015. Conservation Letters 9:131-137.

Betts, R.A., N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire. 2015. Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways. Biogeosciences 12: 1317-1338.

Eigenbrod, F., P. Gonzalez, J. Dash, and I. Steyl. 2015. Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness. Global Change Biology 21: 275-286.

Fisichelli, N.A., G.W. Schuurman, W.B. Monahan, and P.S. Ziesler. 2015. Protected area tourism in a changing climate: will visitation at US national parks warm up or overheat? PLOS ONE 10.

Fisichelli, N.A., G.W. Schuurman, and E. Sharron. 2015. Climate change: responding to the crisis portended by George Perkins Marsh. The George Wright Forum 32:276-289.

Gross, J.E., and B.R. Noon. 2015. Application of surrogates and indicators to monitoring natural resources. Pages 169-178 in D.B. Lindenmayer, J.C. Pierson, and P. Barton, P. (editors). Indicators and surrogates of biodiversity and environmental change. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.

Gonzalez, P., J.J. Battles, B.M. Collins, T. Robards, and D.S. Saah. 2015. Aboveground live carbon stock changes of California wildland ecosystems, 2001-2010. Forest Ecology and Management 348: 68-77.

Lindenmayer, D., and 16 others (incl. J.E. Gross). 2015. A new framework for selecting environmental surrogates. Science of the Total Environment 538:1029-1038.

Sepulveda, A.J., M. Tercek, R. Al-Chokhachy. A. Ray, D. Thoma, B. Hossack, G. Pederson; A. Rodman, T. Olliff. 2015. The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area. PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0145060.

Tweiten, M.A., R.R. Calcote, E.A. Lynch, S.C. Hotchkiss, and G.W. Schuurman. 2015. Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests. Ecological Applications 25:1984-1996.

Rockman, M. 2015. An NPS Framework for Addressing Climate Change with Cultural Resources. George Wright Forum 32(1): 37-50.

Garfin, G., G. Franco, H. Blanco, A. Comrie, P. Gonzalez, T. Piechota, R. Smyth, and R. Waskom. 2014. Southwest. In U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo, J.M., T.C. Richmond, and G.W. Yohe (Eds.)) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.

Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart. 2014. Africa. In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. [P. Gonzalez one of 55 Contributing Authors.]

Settele, J., R. Scholes, R.A. Betts, S. Bunn, P. Leadley, D. Nepstad, J.T. Overpeck, and M.A. Taboada. 2014. Terrestrial and inland water systems. In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. [P. Gonzalez one of 30 Contributing Authors.]

Gross, J.E., K. Johnson, P. Glick, and K. Hall. 2014. Understanding climate change impacts and vulnerability. Pp. 87-108 in B. Stein et al. (editors), Climate-Smart conservation: putting adaptation principles into practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Gross, J.E., and E. Rowland. 2014. Tracking action effectiveness and ecological response. Pp. 165-174 in B. Stein et al. (editors), Climate-Smart conservation: putting adaptation principles into practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Gonzalez, P., B. Kroll, and C.R. Vargas. 2014. Tropical rainforest biodiversity and aboveground carbon changes and uncertainties in the Selva Central, Peru. Forest Ecology and Management 312: 78-91.

Guntenspergen, G.R, and J.E. Gross. 2014. Threshold concepts: implications for the management of natural resources. Pages 1-8 in: Guntenspergen, G.R (editor): Application of threshold concepts in natural resource decision making. Springer Science.

Hansen, A.J., N. Piekielek, C. Davis, J. Haas, D. Theobald, J.E. Gross, W.B. Monahan, T. Olliff, S. W. Running. 2014. Exposure of US National Parks to land use and climate change 1900-2100. Ecological Applications 24: 484-502.

Hoffman, J.E. Rowland, C Hawkins Hoffman, J. West, S. Herrod-Julius, and M. Hayes. 2014. Managing under uncertainty. pp. 177-187 in B. Stein et al. (editors), Climate-Smart conservation: putting adaptation principles into practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Lydersen, J.M., B.M. Collins, C.M. Ewell, A.L. Reiner, J.A. Fites, C.B. Dow, P. Gonzalez, D.S. Saah, and J.J. Battles. 2014. Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 119: 223–235.

Monahan W.B., Fisichelli N.A. 2014. Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change. PLoS ONE 9(7): e101302.

Stein, B.A., C Hawkins Hoffman, and P. Glick, and K. Hall. 2014. Reconsidering conservation goals in light of climate change. pp. 109-117 in B. Stein et al. (editors), Climate-Smart conservation: putting adaptation principles into practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Fisichelli N., Hawkins Hoffman C., Welling L., Briley L., and R. Rood. 2013. Using climate change scenarios to explore management at Isle Royale National Park: January 2013 workshop report. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2013/714. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado

Caffrey, M. and R.L. Beavers. 2013. Forecasting the impact of sea level rise in the U.S. Park Science, 30(1): 6–13.

Pipatti, R., P. Munishi, P. Gonzalez, and P.M. Wade. 2013. Cross-cutting issues and reporting. In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.

Grimm, N.B., F.S. Chapin, B. Bierwagen, P. Gonzalez, P.M. Groffman, Y. Luo, F. Melton, K. Nadelhoffer, A. Pairis, P.A. Raymond, J. Schimel, and C.E. Williamson. 2013. The impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11: 474-482.

Gonzalez, P. 2013. Energy use, Human. In S.A. Levin (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Biodiversity (Second Edition). Academic Press, Waltham, MA.

Amberg, S., K. Kilkus, S. Gardner, J. E. Gross, M. Wood, and B. Drazkowski. 2012. Badlands National Park: Climate change vulnerability assessment. Natural Resource Report NPS/BADL/NRR—2012/505. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. 304 pages.

Gonzalez, P., C.J. Tucker, and H. Sy. 2012. Tree density and species decline in the African Sahel attributable to climate. Journal of Arid Environments 78: 55-64.

Gross, J.E. 2012. Ecological consequences of climate change: mechanisms, conservation, and management. Journal of Wildlife Management 76:1102-1103.

Monahan, W.B., and J.E. Gross. 2012. Upstream landscape dynamics of US national parks with implications for water quality and watershed management. In: Sustainable Natural Resources Management, Abiud Kaswamila (ed.), InTech.

Monahan, W.B., J. E. Gross, L. K. Svancara, and T. Philippi. 2012. A guide to interpret­ing NPScape data and analyses. Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/NRSS/NRTR—2012/578. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Monahan, W.B., D.E. Swann, J.A. Hubbard, and J.E. Gross. 2012. Monitoring park landscape dynamics through NPScape: Saguaro National Park. Park Science, 29(1).

Schwartz, M.W., J.J. Hellmann, J.M. McLachlan, D.F. Sax, J.O. Borevitz, J. Brennan, A.E. Camacho, G. Ceballos, J.R. Clark, H. Doremus, R. Early, J.R. Etterson, D. Fielder, J.L. Gill, P. Gonzalez, N. Green, L. Hannah, D.W. Jamieson, D. Javeline, B.A. Minteer, J. Odenbaugh, S. Polasky, D.M. Richardson, T.L. Root, H.D. Safford, O. Sala, S.H. Schneider, A.R. Thompson, J.W. Williams, M. Vellend, P. Vitt, and S. Zellmer. 2012. Managed relocation: Integrating the scientific, regulatory, and ethical challenges. BioScience 62: 732-743.

Schramm A. and Loehman R. 2012. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Pacific Coast. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2012/513. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Gonzalez, P. 2011. Science for natural resource management under climate change. Issues in Science and Technology 27(4): 65-74.

Hayhoe, K., K.B. Jones, and J.E. Gross. 2011. Peering into the future: climate and ecological models. Pages 51-67 in: P. Glick, B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson (editors), Scanning the conservation horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.

Miller-Rushing, A., A Evenden, J.E. Gross, B. Mitchell, and S. Sachs. 2011. Parks use phenology to improve management and communicate climate change. Park Science 28: 65-71.

Gonzalez, P. 2011. Climate change impacts and carbon in U.S. national parks. Park Science 28(2): 10-15.

Schramm A. and Loehman R. 2011. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRSS/CCRP/NRR—2011/470. National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Schramm A. and Loehman R. 2011. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Pacific Islands. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/CCRP/NRR—2011/287. National Park Service, Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Belant, J. L., E. A. Beever, J. E. Gross, and J. J. Lawler. 2010. Ecological responses to contemporary climate change within species, communities, and ecosystems. Conservation Biology 24:7-9.

Gonzalez, P., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2010. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19: 755-768.

Gross, J.E., I.J. Gordon, and N. Owen-Smith. 2010. Irruptive dynamics and vegetation interactions. Pages 117-140 in: N. Owen-Smith (editor), Dynamics of large herbivore populations in changing environments: Shifting paradigms. Wiley-Blackwell.

Haugo, R.D., S.A. Hall, E.M. Gray, P. Gonzalez, and J.D. Bakker. 2010. Influences of climate, fire, grazing, and logging on woody species composition along an elevation gradient in the eastern Cascades, Washington. Forest Ecology and Management 260: 2204-2213.

Schramm A. and Loehman R. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Great Lakes. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/CCRP/NRR—2010/247. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Loehman R. and Anderson G. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to the Gulf Coast. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/210. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Jezierski C. and Others. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to Alaska Maritime and Transitional. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/223. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Jezierski C. and Others. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to Alaska Boreal and Arctic. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/224. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Loehman R. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to Arid Lands. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/209. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Loehman R. 2009. Understanding the Science of Climate Change. Talking Points - Impacts to Western Mountains and Forests. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2009/090. National Park Service. Fort Collins.

Loehman R. 2009. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to prairie potholes and grasslands. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2009/138. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado.

Loehman R. and Anderson G. 2009. Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to the Atlantic Coast. Natural Resource Report. NPS/NRPC/NRR—2009/095. Natural Resource Program Center. Fort Collins.

Last updated: April 12, 2024