Park Service Displays at 2007 ESRI International User Conference

Storm Impact Analysis on Coastal National Pakrs

Abstract. Large storm events impact coastal national parks in the United States annually. These storms can vary in magnitude and strength and the devastation caused by these storms can be wide spread. However, the impact of storms on tourism industries and especially national park visitation has not yet been studied and often assumed to be catastrophic. In this study, we examine 150 years of accumulated storm data for ten parks within the Gulf Coast of the US and along the southern Atlantic Coast. Recreational data were divided into two categories, storm season (June to November) and non-storm season. Storm tracks were calculated from NOAA and each park was buffered to 75 miles based on the National Hurricane Center's prescribed impact zone. Storm events were summarized by park and recreation visits. Regression analysis was used to model the impacts of storms on park visitation rates for five of the ten parks based on non-trended data. Preliminary results suggest a rapid return within three months of pre-storm visitation rates for all five parks. Recommendations include a closer examination of local versus long distance visits using other indicators of recreation such as sales and lodging taxes.

Introduction. Natural disasters and large scale storm events have become more common recently throughout the world (Rasmussen 2004). Large scale storms in coastal areas have scale impacts on both society and the environment as US populations increase along the coastal margins of the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico areas. Such natural disasters are often considered a dynamic part of an ecological process for barrier islands and coastal margins of the US; however, the human socioeconomic costs from these storms have been steadily increasing in recent decades (Doswell 2003). The US National Park Service manages 57 sites with significant coastal resources and many of these sites are popular tourist sites with visitation numbers in the millions. Storm impact recovery efforts tend to focus on infrastructure and critical natural or cultural resources immediate post storm when endangered species such as the sea turtle or sensitive cultural resources such as Fort Pickens, are heavily impacts by the storm event. Little attention has been focused on the long-term impact of storms on recreational visits but anecdotal information suggests that park visitation declines due to the damage caused by the storm. Here, we take a detailed look on recreational visits to ten National Park Sites along the southern Atlantic Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.

Research Objectives. This study takes a preliminary look at recreational visits as one measure of recovery for a national park impacted by a large scale storm event. There are several such measures of recovery such as sales and lodging taxes and other economic indicators. This portion of a larger study focuses only on recreational visits with the following study objectives:

Methods

Study Areas
• Gulf Island NS
• Everglades NP
• Padre Island NS
• Dry Tortugas NP
• Biscayne NP
• Canaveral NS
• Cape Lookout NS
• Cumberland Island NS
• Assateague Island NS
• Cape Hatteras NS

Research Process

1. Collecting Storm Track Data
2. Define Impact Zone Using GIS
3. Analysis of Storms on Parks
4. Collecting Visitation Data
5. Analysis of Storms on Park Visitation

Historical Storm Impacts
Storm Definition & Classification
-Storm Data Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center online
-"Tropical Cyclone" is a generic term for a low pressure system that usually forms in the tropics.
-Topical cyclones are also called hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions, depending upon intensity.

Storm Impacts on Park Visitation
Backgrounds
-To know the impact of storms on park visitation, this research examined the Hurricane Season (June-November) park visitation.
-Due to visitation data availability, this analysis is focused on 1979-2004 time period.
-Visitation and storm data are all collected by month.
-Park Visitation Data Source: NPS Visitation Database (http://www2.nature.nps.gov/NPstats/select_report.cfm?by=month)
-Storm data is collected based on storm impact zone (75mile) of each park using GIS.

Conclusion. Parks of US Coast have experienced average 0.7 storms per year during 1850-2005. It is noteworthy that high intensity hurricanes (category 4 and 5) have been increasing after 1970s (Hoyes et al., 2006). Especially, Gulf Island National Seashore, Evergades National Park, Cape Lookout National Seashore, Cape Hatteras National Seashore have experienced comparatively more storms. It is required for parks to identify the risk of storms and understand the importance of proactive actions for response and recovery against storms.

The statistical model shows that a hurricane category 3 would decrease recreational visitation by about 88,000 in the month when the hurricane happens and if a category 4 hurricane happens, the recreational visitation of the month would be decreased by 120,000. The impacts of most hurricanes are likely to continue for two months and in three months, the impact of storm is decreased and the visitation is likely to be recovered. The visitation to parks which experienced a tropical storm showed almost complete recovery (increase of 15,000) in three months.

Content by Jung Eug Kang, Gillian Bowser, Gerard Kyle; Texas A&M University, NPS.

Links of interest:

• NPS Spatial Odyssey 2006
• Twenty-Seventh Annual ESRI International User Conference Page
• National Park Service Website
• NPS GIS Website

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