Dragon Bravo Fire BAER Executive Summary

The DOI BAER team evaluated water runoff at the Widforss Trailhead on the North Rim, Aug. 2025

DOI BAER Team Photo

Introduction

The Dragon Bravo Fire ignited on July 4, 2025, on the Kaibab Plateau within Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA) and adjacent Kaibab National Forest lands. The fire burned 149,399 acres, including 71,129 acres of GRCA-managed lands. The fire exhibited a predominantly low- to moderate-severity mosaic burn pattern, with 68% of GRCA lands classified as low severity, 24% moderate, and only 1% high severity. This pattern reflects the fire-adapted nature of the landscape and the effectiveness of long-term fuels and wildfire management implemented by the park.

The Department of the Interior (DOI) BAER Team was mobilized to assess post-fire threats to life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. The team conducted field assessments from August 19–26, 2025, and coordinated with GRCA staff, Tribal representatives, and interagency partners. This Executive Summary outlines the team’s findings and recommended emergency stabilization and rehabilitation treatments.

The visible impacts of the Dragon Bravo Fire as seen from just above Supai Tunnel along the North Kaibab Trail, Aug. 2025

DOI BAER Team Photo

As the team evaluated the impacts of the Dragon Bravo Fire, it became apparent that the damage to structures, the post-fire threat to values, and the temporal scale of impacts associated with the Dragon Bravo Fire can be grouped into three themes:

• Natural and Cultural Resources

• Infrastructure and Built Environment

• Recreation Resources

Each theme tells a distinct part of the fire’s story. Natural and cultural landscapes benefited from the mosaic burn, renewing ecological and cultural processes. The built environment suffered catastrophic loss. Recreational resources face near-term challenges, but with thoughtful timing and management, they can safely reopen. This Executive Summary provides an overview of post-fire conditions, identifies key values at risk, and outlines the emergency stabilization measures recommended for implementation by GRCA staff.

The Dragon Bravo Fire burned in a heterogeneous mosaic, meaning most of the landscape experienced low or moderate soil burn severity (SBS).

DOI BAER Team Photo

The team started in the natural and cultural environment by validating the Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) imagery and confirmed the following distribution on GRCA lands. The fire burned in a heterogeneous mosaic, with most of the landscape experiencing low or moderate soil burn severity (SBS):

• Unburned and Low severity (68–75%): Organic matter intact, roots and soil structure preserved, rapid natural regeneration expected.

• Moderate severity (24–26%): Thin ash layers, some hydrophobicity observed, still exhibited intact root systems and early signs of recovery like resprouting.

• High severity (~1–2%): Localized areas of soil alteration, increased risks of erosion and runoff, but not widespread. These areas pose longer-term potential for erosion and invasive species colonization.

The rapid assessment process relies on the SBS to inform value-based decision-making. The team utilized a risk rating system to evaluate post-fire threats to values within and downstream of the fire, applying ratings based on the probability of occurrence and the level of consequence. This system guided the need for, and the design of treatments aimed at mitigating threats to values ranked as medium, high, or extreme. Resource assessments supporting the designed system of treatments are included in the plan.

While this BAER Plan relies on satellite imagery and scientific risk modeling, the primary purpose of the assessment is to rationalize the funding and implementation of treatments proposed that align with the Department of Interior’s Post Wildfire Recovery Program. Because these findings were part of a Rapid Assessment, it should be noted that the team has not developed an all-inclusive review of each resource. Additional findings, if leading to necessary stabilization or rehabilitation, should be submitted as an amendment to the original plan for funding within one year and 21 days of fire start.

The following list of treatments are intended to mitigate threat to values-at-risk that the team gleaned from the in-briefing or identified during the rapid assessment. These treatments bridge the gap between the wildfire and full restoration of the natural, the built, and the recreation environments. The primary objective of the team’s rapid assessment was emergency stabilization (ES) as illustrated in the 15 treatments below, however, six burned area rehabilitation (BAR) treatments were also developed. The team has also identified some management recommendations (MR) that will not be included in the funding request because of program eligibility but are intended for consideration by GRCA management in their path to full restoration.

Emergency Stabilization (ES) Treatment

ES-1 Trails Repair & Stabilization

ES-2 Hazard Warning Signs & Messaging

ES-3 Public Safety & Resource Protection

ES-4 Hazard Trees

ES-5 Highway Safety Infrastructure Replacement

ES-6 HAZMAT Stabilization

ES-7 Historic Building Stabilization

ES-8 Historic Building Safety Fence

ES-9 Boundary Signs

ES-10 Early Warning System

ES-11 Drinking Water System Protection

ES-12 Storm Patrol

ES-13 Invasive Plant Management

ES-14 Compliance and Consultation

ES-15 BAER Implementation Leader

Burned Area Rehabilitation (BAR)

BAR-1 Trails Repair & Stabilization

BAR-2 Replace Minor Assets

BAR-3 Invasive Plant Management

BAR-4 Replace Minor Monitoring Equipment

BAR-5 Monarch Habitat Replacement

BAR-6 BAER Implementation Leader

The DOI BAER Team conducts initial field baseline assessments, Aug. 2025

DOI BAER Team Photo

Summary of Resource Assessments

Watershed

The Dragon Bravo Fire intersected several critical watershed areas, including those supporting the park’s drinking water infrastructure and high-use visitor zones. While 68% of GRCA lands burned at low severity and 24% at moderate, field observations confirmed that even in moderate severity areas, soil structure remained intact and vegetation was already resprouting.

Hydrologic modeling showed runoff increases of 2–8× upstream of Phantom Creek and 1–2× downstream to the Colorado River, but infrastructure at these locations has been designed to be above modeled floodplains. Model results also indicate that sediment delivery is in equilibrium, and debris flow risk is localized to steep, confined drainages, like Dragon Creek and upper Bright Angel Creek, but not expected because of typical monsoon events. Overall, the watershed response reflects the fire’s mosaic pattern and suggests that while short-term increases in runoff and debris flow are expected, they are unlikely to significantly impact values-at-risk under normal storm conditions.

Plant regrowth occurred in mild to moderate burn severity by August 2025

DOI BAER Team Photo

Vegetation

Vegetation communities across the park responded variably to the fire. In low-severity areas, overstory trees and seed sources remain intact, while moderate-severity patches are already showing signs of resprouting. High-severity patches are small and embedded within larger areas of intact vegetation, reducing the likelihood of long-term type conversion or ecological disruption. This pattern aligns with historical fire regimes and supports strong potential for natural regeneration across most vegetation types. Fire-adapted species such as Gambel oak and aspen are expected to recover quickly, while spruce–fir forests, which experienced higher mortality, will recover more slowly due to limited seed dispersal. Suppression activities and patches of higher SBS create disturbed areas vulnerable to invasive species, particularly exotic bromes. Although the fire largely supported ecological renewal, these disturbed zones pose a significant risk for invasive plant expansion and long-term vegetation type conversion if not addressed.

Fisheries

The post-fire condition of aquatic ecosystems is closely tied to watershed response and vegetation impacts. As modeled runoff increases in Bright Angel Creek and its tributaries remain within tolerable limits, and sediment delivery is largely retained within the system, the risk to ESA-listed species such as humpback chub and razorback sucker is considered low. No retardant was dropped near live water, and aquatic invasive species risk is minimal. Intact riparian vegetation in low-severity areas and protective needle cast in moderate zones further buffer aquatic habitats. While no emergency treatments are required, continued monitoring is essential to detect delayed effects and ensure long-term habitat stability.

Recreation

Approximately 73 miles of trail were affected by the fire. The North Kaibab Trail sustained moderate damage, with 2,200 feet of tread covered in debris and several log checks and delineators burned. Other trails, including Ken Patrick, Uncle Jim, and Transept, experienced moderate to high damage in areas with moderate to high SBS. Fourteen minor assets were damaged or destroyed, including toilets, trail counters, and signage. Post-fire hazards such as rockfall, debris, and unstable tread are expected to persist, particularly in steep terrain. While many trail segments were spared due to the mosaic burn pattern, immediate stabilization is required in damaged areas to ensure visitor safety and restore access to key corridors.

The North Rim Management House within the NPS Administrative Area was lost during the Dragon Bravo Fire, July 12, 2025

NPS Photo

Cultural Resources and Historic District

Most archaeological sites experienced low to moderate SBS, with minimal erosion or looting risk. Drainages with high site concentrations were prioritized, but slope conditions and remaining ground cover reduced the likelihood of post-fire impacts. The Grand Canyon Lodge Historic District suffered total loss of cabins, though some features such as the original 1928 fireplace and staircase may be stabilized. The North Rim Entrance Station was unaffected. Except for the historic lodge district, cultural resources were largely spared from severe damage. The primary concern will be securing and stabilizing any salvageable material or artifacts within the historic lodge district.

Bison in an open meadow on the North Rim during BAER Team assessments, Aug. 2025

DOI BAER Team Photo

Wildlife

Wildlife habitats experienced predominantly low SBS. California condor nesting sites were unaffected. Mexican spotted owl Protected Activity Centers (PACs), while exposed to moderate-high vegetation burn severity, retained low SBS in most areas. One of three monarch habitat sites was destroyed, and 14 wildlife monitoring sites were also impacted within the burn area. Over 67% of bison habitat and 74% of Kaibab squirrel winter territories burned at low SBS. Most wildlife species and habitats are expected to recover naturally, though some species may experience short-term displacement or habitat degradation. Restoration of monitoring infrastructure and pollinator habitat will support long-term resilience and inform adaptive management.

CONCLUSION

The Dragon Bravo Fire burned in a mosaic of predominantly low- to moderate-severity, preserving ecological function across much of the landscape. While localized threats to life, infrastructure, and sensitive resources exist, the fire’s burn pattern supports natural recovery in most areas. Emergency stabilization treatments address immediate risks to water quality, public safety, and historic structures. Burned Area Rehabilitation treatments support longer-term recovery through invasive species control, trail maintenance, and wildlife monitoring.

The three themes that guided this assessment—Natural and Cultural Resources, Infrastructure and Built Environment, and Recreation Resources—reflect distinct patterns of impact and recovery.

• Natural and cultural landscapes largely benefited from the fire’s mosaic pattern, which preserved ecological processes and minimized damage to archaeological sites.

• Infrastructure, particularly in the built environment, experienced the most direct and irreversible losses, requiring targeted stabilization to prevent further degradation. The built environment lost about 106 of 229 structures, including the iconic lodge. There are multiple burned structures in this area that either have overhead hazards like standing chimneys or pose a risk of hazardous material exposure harmful to humans, animals, and vegetation.

• Recreation resources were variably affected, with some trails and assets requiring immediate repair and others expected to recover naturally over time. While visitors along the Colorado River may experience infrequent flood events because of the fire, hikers on the trails within or downslope from the burned area will experience frequent stabilization issues, especially hazardous rockfall for at least the first year. Targeted stabilization, hazard communication, and phased reopening will eventually restore safe access that protects both visitors and resources during the recovery period.

This plan represents the first step in post-fire response. The rapid assessment provides a defensible rationale for implementing a system of treatments under BAER Policy to mitigate threats to values-at-risk. While BAER funding is limited to emergency stabilization within one year of fire containment, other funding authorities may be pursued by the park to support full restoration and long-term resilience. The BAER Plan bridges that gap between the wildfire and full restoration of any or all the environments.