Changing Visitation Patterns Present Challenges and Opportunities for Alaska National Parks

• H. Sharon Kim, Outdoor Recreation Planner, National Park Service Alaska Regional Office (formerly)
• Sean Eagan, Interdisciplinary Resources Program Manager, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve
• Dave Schirokauer, Science and Resources Team Leader, Denali National Park and Preserve

About this issue of Alaska Park Science

The articles in this issue explore dynamic challenges and emerging opportunities for management to ensure that the National Park Service mission is met and visitors have high-quality experiences in Alaska’s national parks. Management decisions are often a result of finding compromises or the best possible outcome based on values as much as science. Because of that, articles in this issue may be presented from a particular perspective or express opinions. Those opinions are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the National Park Service.

Cruise ship seasons are getting longer and more people are accessing Alaska parks by cruise ship. This changing dynamic creates both challenges and opportunities.

NPS/SEAN TEVEBAUGH

Visitation to Alaska national parks has increased in the past decade (2014-2024), except for a short dip due to COVID between 2020 and 2022. Tourism to Alaska increased 63% from 1.66 million to 2.7 million people, with the growth largely driven by the cruise market which grew by 84% across the decade (McKinley Research Group 2025). Over the same time period, recreation visits to Alaska national parks increased 29% from 2.68 million to 3.47 million people (NPS 2025) with many parks, particularly those where cruise ships visit or passengers include park visits as part of tour packages, showing marked increases. In Glacier Bay, passengers on cruise ships of all sizes increased by nearly 50% since 2013. A combination of warming temperatures, increased number of cruise ship ports and port improvements, and a lengthening cruise ship season are expected to continue this trend of increased tourism and visitation to Alaska national parks (Figure 1). This article explores the implications for park management from these anticipated changes.

Figure 1. Visitation at parks with cruise ship ports or with cruise ship-associated packaged trips. The COVID-affected years from 2020-2021 explain the steep drop.

Data are from NPS STATS (2025). Glacier Bay, Katmai, Kenai Fjords, Klondike Gold Rush, Lake Clark, and Sitka parks have increased from 2013-2024, and Denali has decreased.

Shifting Visitor Seasons from Warmer Temperatures

High latitudes are warming more quickly than the global average; for example, the Arctic is warming nearly four times faster (Rantanen et al. 2022). Decreases in sea ice extent and the warmest summer surface air temperatures on record have been documented recently (NOAA 2023). Related effects include earlier green-up dates (Fresco et al. 2021), and earlier snowmelt and later freeze-up determined from stream flow discharges (Blaskey et al. 2023). By extension the warming climate has become a key park management consideration because these changes impact visitation patterns and the length of the visitor season.

What is park visitation?

Park visitation is a measure of how many visitors come to a park. The term visitor refers to a person recreating in a park as opposed to someone who comes to a park to harvest resources for traditional subsistence use based on generations of history.

For example, in many parks in northern and Interior Alaska, the standard date for the start of public-related summer operations has been Memorial Day weekend, while the end of the season has been more variable, ranging from Labor Day through mid-September. A study looking at 3 parks across a latitudinal gradient (Gates of the Arctic, Denali, and Katmai national parks and preserves) determined that temperatures for the shoulder season months of May and September are becoming more similar to temperatures currently in June through August, likely leading to a longer peak visitor-use season (Albano et al. 2013). In Kenai Fjords National Park, access to Exit Glacier, a key visitor attraction, is limited by snow depth in the spring due to the inability to open the road. As the climate warms and winter rain replaces snow, conditions may allow for earlier road access (Walsh et al. 2023, Sousanes et al. 2023). When roads open earlier, park visitors often expect facilities such as visitor centers to also be open earlier. This happened in 2014-2016 when Seward experienced low-snow winters and the state-owned road to Kenai Fjords National Park was opened in mid-April, putting social pressure on the park to open the park road and visitor facilities in late April instead of mid-May. While trails and restrooms were opened earlier in those years, the visitor center was not opened until Memorial Day weekend because it requires extensive staffing. (In contrast, in 2024, the road opened in mid-May, which shows that low-snowfall winters are not a certainty and prevents the park from counting on a consistent April opening for staffing decisions.)

With extended visitor seasons for parks, popular visitor activities such as wildlife viewing may also start earlier in the year and possibly continue later into fall. For example, bears, which are popular viewing experiences for visitors, are emerging from their dens earlier and hibernating later as temperatures warm (Johnson et al. 2018, Kurth et al. 2024). Their movements and distributions are also changing as the availability of fish, berries, and other food sources also shift (Taylor 2008, Pigeon et al. 2016, Deacy et al. 2017). These trends increase the opportunity for human-bear interactions, a recurring safety and management issue for many parks (Kurth et al. 2024).

Expansion of Cruise Ship Docks in Alaska

Another reason for changing visitation to Alaska’s national parks is due to the expansion of the port infrastructure available for large cruise ships that bring a disproportionate number of tourists to Alaska. Favorable global economic trends, including a growing middle class with increased spending power (Brookings Institution 2021), also result in expanded cruise ship operations. In 2023, 1,650,000 cruise ship visitors were brought to Alaska compared to 951,000 visitors in 2006, an increase of over 70% (CLIA 2024). Southeast Alaska parks, such as Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, are currently seeing the visitor season extend from late April through mid-October, a marked change from 20 years ago when ships were rarely seen before 1 May and never after early September. To that point, in 2013, Glacier Bay had 575 cruise ship visitors in April; in 2023, there were 8,389 cruise ship passengers in April and 43,922 visitors in October (NPS 2025).

Cruise ship passengers view Marjorie Glacier in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve.

NPS

To accommodate the robust interest in Alaska cruises, the industry, some municipalities, and some private companies are modifying their existing infrastructure or investing in additional areas where cruise ships can dock. For example, in the past decade, Ketchikan, Juneau, Skagway, and Hoonah have expanded their ports to accommodate the largest ships that come to Alaska such as Royal Caribbean’s Icon, which can carry up to 7,600 passengers. By spring 2026, the Alaska Railroad and other partners will be expanding the Seward cruise ship docking area to be able to accommodate larger cruise ship vessels holding more than 4,000 passengers in addition to expanding the cruise ship passenger terminal (ADN 2022, The Seward Company 2024). While Whittier, located relatively close to Anchorage, has had a long-term existing cruise ship dock, the city and its partners have recently constructed an additional “Head of the Bay” passenger terminal and cruise ship dock (City of Whittier 2024). This dock is expected to bring 100,000 more people through Whittier, which, like Seward, is part of the Alaska Railroad system. The first cruise ship arrived at this new Whittier dock in September 2024 (City of Whittier, pers. comm., September 11, 2024). Kenai Fjords National Park, located near the cruise ship port of Seward, and Denali National Park and Preserve, with an Alaska Railroad train depot within park boundaries, can expect to see additional visitors as a result.

In Sitka, a private cruise ship docking terminal was constructed about 5 miles from downtown in 2011 and in 2022, this terminal was expanded to accommodate 2 cruise ships simultaneously, including a large ship capable of carrying 4,900 guests (KTOO 2021). In 2023, more than 500,000 cruise ship passengers visited Sitka compared to the previous record of 289,000 in 2008 (Wrangell Sentinel 2023). Sitka National Historical Park, located 1 mile east of the downtown area, is currently in the process of a visitor use management and transportation plan to address this increase in visitors.

The City of Nome is expected to have the very first U.S. deep-water port in the Arctic with expected completion by 2027 (USACE 2022). This is expected to increase cruise ship traffic to Nome including passenger excursions to the nearby Bering Land Bridge National Preserve.

Even parks that do not have a gateway community near a port are being affected by the increase in cruise ship tourism. As of 2024, parks such as Lake Clark National Park and Preserve are seeing cruise ship visitors through packaged excursion trips (Lake Clark National Park staff, pers. comm., August 8, 2024). This has contributed to the increased number of visitors coming to coastal bear-viewing sites in mid-May, starting the visitor season around 2 weeks earlier and with larger groups.

Other Travel Trends

Another climate related social factor that may be influencing changes to park visitation in Alaska has been termed coolcation, defined as people seeking vacation destinations with cooler summer temperatures (Condé Nast Traveler 2023). The record summer heatwaves that have been affecting the lower-48 states and Europe are expected to continue and possibly increase in frequency (Copernicus 2024, NASA 2024). 2024 has been identified as the warmest year on record with the hottest August documented in the 175-year record (NOAA 2025). The relatively cooler summer temperatures coupled with the long summer daylight make Alaska more attractive for a coolcation.

Another recent travel trend that is affecting Alaska is referred to as last-chance tourism (Lemelin and Whipp 2019) where people travel to destinations to see attractions that may soon vanish due to climate change or development (Forbes 2018). Alaska national parks support an extensive network of glaciers which are one of the primary destinations for those acting on, and engaging in, last chance discourse (commentary about their experience; Abrahams et al. 2022). For example, the Exit Glacier at Kenai Fjords National Park has been retreating rapidly since 2004 (the glacier terminus has retreated over a half mile; NPS 2024).

Exit Glacier in 1992, 2010, and 2024. The ability to see the glacier toe from the trail has changed significantly over time. Sightseeing to retreating glaciers is part of a trend referred to as last chance tourism.

NPS (1992), NPS/S. McKnight (2010), NPS/J. Rodrigues (2024)

Commercial airlines have shown a moderate increase in bringing visitors to Alaska, although patterns from cargo (rather then passenger) transport demonstrate the capacity for increase. Visitors coming by commercial airlines have increased over the decade from 578,400 in 2010 to 790,900 in 2019 with an average annual growth of 3.7% over the 10 years (McDowell Group 2020) for an increase of almost 40%. The busiest Alaskan airport, the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, is located less than 10 hours from 90% of the industrialized world (McKinley Research Group 2023), and for cargo transportation in 2022, the Ted Stevens Airport was the 3rd busiest airport in the world (Airport Council International 2024). While cargo transportation is clearly different than passengers, the potential for parallel travel routes can be seen (Figure 2). For example, the proximity to the industrial world is reflected in the increase of winter tourism for viewing northern lights (aurora borealis). Winter tourism in Denali National Park and Preserve has increased more than 15-fold from 981 visitors in 2000 to 20,966 visitors in 2024, straining the park’s winter facilities. The air flight proximity to the industrialized world could also contribute to increased visitor numbers in spring and fall with an expanding summer shoulder season.

Figure 2: World map showing proximity of Anchorage represented by “AIAS” on the map to other major cities.

Alaska International Airlines Systems 2024

Management Challenges and Opportunities

While cruise ships and airlines are poised to accommodate more visitors in the shoulder seasons, the National Park Service is increasingly challenged to address the potential increase in overall visitor numbers and length of season. Managing visitor experiences is another challenge for park managers and includes addressing visitor expectations in a rapidly changing environment. Two frameworks may be particularly helpful when considering future management actions for parks: scenario planning and the Resist-Accept-Direct framework.

Scenario planning is a structured way of recognizing that the future is not always clear and provides a way to think through actions related to different possible futures (Schoemaker 1995). By exploring multiple possible futures instead of focusing on a single future, scenario planning can be particularly useful in conditions of high uncertainty (NPS 2013). This process is also a way to identify actions that can work across many of the various scenarios, leading to a more robust set of solutions. For example, the southwest Alaska parks used climate change scenarios to understand implications for riverine and coastal systems (Winfree et al. 2014). When considering park management actions related to visitors, it is important to consider how visitation may change in the future especially related to seasonality and overall number, as well as understanding how visitor experience may change.

In light of the uncertain rate of Exit Glacier retreat and future visitation numbers, Kenai Fjords National Park used scenario planning to identify robust management actions across various future scenarios (Kim et al. 2020). As mentioned earlier, visitor experience at Kenai Fjords National Park has greatly changed over the last 20 years for Exit Glacier, a key location in the park’s frontcountry area accessible by road vehicle. Back in 2004, Kenai Fjords National Park released the Exit Glacier Area Plan, An Environmental Assessment and General Management Plan Amendment (NPS 2004), which focused on Exit Glacier as the primary park visitor attraction accessible by road. The purpose of the 2004 plan stated that “Exit Glacier provides visitors with a rare opportunity to easily approach a glacier on foot” and that visitors “can drive within one-half mile of the glacier terminus and walk a relatively easy path to its towering face of ice.” In 2004, Exit Glacier was considered to be fairly stationary as the terminus (bottom edge) had receded only 184 feet (56 m) from 1974-2004 (Kurtz and Baker 2016). However, from 2003 to 2023, the terminus receded a half mile (2,640 feet [804 m]; NPS 2024) and the glacier is no longer accessible to most visitors. Today, some visitors still come to Kenai Fjords National Park expecting to stand next to a glacier, but the glacier has now retreated substantially up a steep slope and can no longer be accessed by the lower trails. Because of this major retreat of Exit Glacier, scenario planning was used to come up with robust solutions across different scenarios of the rate of Exit Glacier retreat and various visitation levels. These robust solutions were incorporated into the 2024 Kenai Fjords Frontcountry Management Plan Environmental Assessment (NPS 2024), focusing more on the frontcountry area as a whole with the intent to help shift visitor focus away from Exit Glacier. Park visitor programs have shifted beyond Exit Glacier to broaden people’s understanding of glacial processes, the Harding Icefield, and the fjords with over 500 miles of coastline.

Another management tool for making decisions for park areas undergoing rapid change is the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework (Schuurman et al. 2020). This framework has been applied to ecosystems undergoing rapid, irreversible ecological change. While the NPS has often focused on restoring ecological systems within a historic range of variability, the RAD framework applies when this range shifts and the historic range of variability no longer applies. The RAD framework has park managers consider what makes the most sense: resist the change and try to restore back to the historic conditions, accept the change with little action to manipulate it into something different, or direct the change by actively managing it towards specific new desired conditions.

While the RAD framework focuses on ecological change, this framework can also apply to shifting park visitation. For example, when a new cruise ship dock near a railroad depot is built within Alaska, this may shift the visitation number in a railroad-accessed park much higher than in the past and across an expanded season. New visitor excursions can also cause an influx of visitors where they were not as prevalent before either in location, time period, or both. Depending on the visitor use management actions and related capacity of the park area, these greater numbers may be resisted (e.g., limit access due to resource damage and visitor capacities being exceeded); accepted (e.g., access can be allowed when capacities are not reached and resource impacts are not occurring at unacceptable levels), or directed (e.g., management actions provide for a greater number of visitors in particular areas where resource damage can be minimized).

Overlaying visitor management on a shifting environment due to an extended visitor season and increasing visitation may be challenging, but combining scenario planning with the RAD framework may be particularly helpful for identifying a clearer set of robust options in an uncertain future. Several scenarios may warrant the same RAD framework strategy. Management actions that apply to more than one scenario are considered robust and management actions that cross over all of the scenarios are considered to be the most robust, as Kenai Fjords National Park found when they used the scenario planning as a starting point to determine management actions.

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Cite this article as

Kim, H. S., S. Eagan, and D. Schirokauer. 2025. Changing visitation patterns present challenges and opportunities for Alaska national parks. Alaska Park Science 23(1), 2025.