In a healthy population, there should be many oak tree seedlings.
Recruitment Rate Study: Another study looked at the recruitment rate—essentially the “birth” and retention rate—for oak seedlings and saplings. In a set of randomly located plots within areas where black oaks were known to occur in the Valley, all black oaks were inventoried, and assigned to one of several size classes. Researchers also recorded various environmental site conditions that may influence the recruitment rate. Within a healthy tree population, there are many seedlings, fewer saplings, and even fewer adults. In the oak tree populations studied in the Valley—regardless of elevation, soil type, vegetation community, and distance from roads and trails—the expected population structure was not found. The populations were mostly mature adult trees with a fair number of seedlings but few saplings or young adults.
A factor that is operating Valley-wide seems to be preventing seedlings and saplings from surviving. Because some sites surveyed had few conifers, this would seem to question the hypothesis that conifers are shading out and killing oaks due to a previous policy of fire suppression—although that may still turn out to be a factor. Oak core samples showing the age of oaks indicates that oak populations were healthy until about 1920, when the populations started to decline. It appears that something began happening at that time that reduced the survival rates of seedlings and saplings, leading to a population structure found today that is skewed in favor of mature, adult trees.
One hypothesis that might explain the decline in black oaks is that the formerly common practice of fire suppression reduced the overall relative dominance of black oaks. Most oak species are adapted to survive fire and may even need fire to persist. Prior to the era of fire suppression, American Indians used fire as a management tool to favor oaks and maximize annual acorn crops.
A second hypothesis for current oak decline is that American Indians intensively managed them in Yosemite Valley and may have actively protected young oak saplings. Written accounts from the first Euro-American settlers to the Valley indicate that centuries of active American Indian land management had produced an open oak woodland with few conifers. Today, there are fewer oaks and many more conifers. Perhaps the oak populations we see today are returning to a state that existed prior to intensive Native American land management.
A third hypothesis for black oak decline is a change in deer population size and behavior. Factors affecting these may include: a decline in American Indian use of deer; changes in deer hunting regulations and practice both inside and outside the park; changes in deer predator management, particularly outside the park; and, changes in development, both inside and outside the park. An increase in deer populations may lead to increased deer browsing on certain plants, including oak seedlings and saplings.
There may also be other factors to consider in oak population declines such as changes in hydrology, acorns and seedlings being eaten by rodents, disease and insects attacking acorns, climate change, or some other, as yet unconsidered, factor.