June 29, 2002
From: Fire Management Officer, Mesa Verde National Park
Subject: Fire Danger Evaluation

All data from Chapin NFDRS station 055704 on 3 day average.

#1 Has the 3 day mean Burning Index component been at 90th percentile or above?
Yes, 2002 is shown below in black. We have dropped below the 90th percentile only twice for brief periods since March 20, 2002.

#2 Are the 1000 hr. fuels at 10% or less?
Yes, 1000 hr. fuels have been below 10% since early April and have set historic lows since that time.

#3 Has the 3 day Mean Energy Release Component (erc) been at the 90th percentile or above?
Yes, ERC have not dropped under the 90th since April 25.

#4 Are resources available or have they been impacted by other fires making initial attack difficult or are resources at a shortage level?
All suppression and severity resources assigned to Mesa Verde have been committed the Missionary Ridge Fire near and in Durango.

#5 Area is receiving or has received a high level of fire activity and human caused fire is a high risk?
Many large fires continue to demand Type 1 Teams with no estimated date of containment for Rodeo, Missionary Ridge and several other recent starts.

#6 Are fire levels predicted to stay Extreme or probability of ignition (PI) is 90% or greater?
Yes, 90 day forecast predicts continued hot and dry. (see attached) Extreme conditions are expected to continue. The ignition component has exceeded the 90th since April 25.

#7 Are Adverse Fire Weather Conditions and Risks are predicted to continue and Fire Preparedness Level is 4 or above?
Yes, we have been at Level 5 for the past two weeks and have had RED FLAG warnings several times each week throughout the month of June.

Conclusion: Mesa Verde has never experienced such EXTREME fire danger conditions.

Other critical factors include:
· High exposure to human caused fire risk with thousands of visitors daily.
· A 20 mile, one way road with exposure to extremely dense fuel loading.
· Recent history of large catastrophic fires. Long Mesa, Chapin 5, Bircher, Pony.
· Between 15 and 30 lightening fires occur within the park annually. The lightening season has just begun.

Due to these conditions the threat to human life and property is significant.