Background

The climate in Glacier National Park is one of long, cold, snowy winters and relatively short, warm summers. Here as throughout the world, the climate is changing. Average temperatures are increasing. Whether average annual precipitation will increase or decrease is not known. 83 glaciers have been mapped in the park and 34 of these are named. All 34 of the named glaciers are mountain glaciers that have receded dramatically since the mid-19th century (the end of the Little Ice Age). In addition to the glaciers receding, snowmelt and spring runoff often occur earlier in the spring. Vegetation in the alpine treeline (the transition zone between continuous, mature forest and alpine tundra) may have also been affected by climate change. In the past 80 years at Logan Pass, krummolz vegetation (prostrate, dwarf, shrublike trees) has grown more upright and become denser with more trees. Based on models of vegetation responses to variations in soil moisture and increasing temperature in a complex alpine landscape, scientists have also found evidence that vegetation zones are expanding upward in elevation. According to model predictions for the future, alpine tundra and conifer forests will be found at higher elevations than they are now and grasslands will be prevalent at lower elevations on the westside of the park.

Historically, Glacier has had relatively clean air and water. Most of Glacier's streams and lakes are fed from rain, snow and glacier found in the park. Glacier is the headwaters for three major continental river systems: the Columbia , the Missouri/Mississippi, and the Saskatchewan/Nelson rivers. According to data from current monitoring programs, air and water quality are good. However, both are vulnerable to pollution from sources both within and outside of the park. The activities most likely to affect air and water quality in the park include people living and working in the park, vehicular traffic, development, prescribed fire, wildfire, and visitors staying in the park. Outside activities that could affect the air and water include potential coal and mineral mines, gas exploration, oil and coalbed methane wells, logging, residential development, fire, dirt roads, agricultural emissions and industries, even ones located far from Glacier's boundaries (both regional and transpacific sources). Airborne pollution can come from great distances and be deposited in Glacier's soil, lakes and rivers. Some of Glacier's major rivers run along the boundary of the park and can be affected by activities located across from the park.

Research Needs

Air quality

Quantify atmospheric deposition of toxic air contaminants to the park, including mercury, organics, and trace metals.

Determine the variation in inorganic and organic nitrogen deposition to sensitive ecosystems. Identify the atmospheric source regions for these chemical contaminants.

Estimate the air transport of pollutants using modeling to determine the seasonal roles of transboundary, transpacific, regional and local sources of air pollutants.

Research the role of wildfire and prescribed fire in atmospheric pollution, both from a regional haze perspective and with respect to deposition of nutrients and toxic organics.

Coordinate an assessment of air quality impacts of different energy development scenarios on both sides of the US/Canada border.

Develop a list of air quality related values (AQRV) in Glacier/Waterton and then determine the critical loads of deposition that will affect these AQRVs.

Plan and implement a long-term monitoring program for seasonal snow chemistry at high elevations in the park.

Following the WACAP assessment, determine the need for long-term monitoring of airborne contaminants in different environmental media.

Develop an air quality web cam that can be used by the public to determine the status of air quality and climate in the park.

Determine the importance of dust storms to air quality in Glacier. An analysis of particle size and composition can help determine source areas. This information would help determine what impact western Washington 's agricultural practices are having on the park.

Climate change

Analyze long-term climate data in the local/regional setting to identify trends.

Establish long-term monitoring sites to measure projected climate change impacts related to elevation gradient movement of plant communities and hydrology.

Formalize a glacier margin and glacier volumetric monitoring program.

Develop a model to predict which glaciers are being impacted by climate change and are likely to include prehistoric archeological artifacts and sites.

Hydrology

Establish a long-term calibrated watershed in the park to estimate mass fluxes of water and chemicals over time.

Determine the effects of both wildfire and prescribed fire on hydrologic processes, chemical flux and sediment flux.

Measure and model the distribution of rain/snow across the landscape and then design a monitoring program to determine the change in precipitation amount and types over time.

Estimate the annual extent of snow covered area using remote sensing. Use repeat images to establish the direction and rate of change in this parameter.

Estimate the spatial patterns in soil moisture and design and implement a program to track changes in soil moisture characteristics.

Determine the timing and pattern of snowmelt runoff in selected watersheds within the park. Measure the changes in chemical concentrations in this snowmelt runoff as an indicator of changes in climate, soil processes, and deposition chemistry.

Monitor the runoff from the park's glaciers, quantity, quality and pattern, to determine if stored pollutants are being mobilized.

Monitor the changes in water temperature and flow of streams draining glaciers in the park, to determine the effects of loss of glacier mass.

Design a park wide groundwater monitoring program (stage height) to determine changes due to development or climate change.

In areas of development, design and implement groundwater and surface water monitoring to detect increased sedimentation and chemical contamination from spills or leakage.

Water quality

Use NAWQA (National Water Quality Assessment) protocols to determine if atmospheric transport of contaminants is affecting water resources in Glacier.

Assess mercury deposition and contamination in Glacier NP. Conduct surveys of lake water, lake sediment, and fish tissue to provide baseline data on current levels of mercury contamination. Use lake sediment and soil cores to make estimates of current mercury deposition rates to high elevation ecosystems.

Map surface water sensitivity to nitrogen deposition in wilderness areas in Glacier NP. Use GIS tools and geostatistical methods to develop maps of predicted nitrate concentrations in surface water and estimate ecosystem sensitivity to nitrogen deposition.

Test water quality to compare against baseline (1990) water quality data in order to detect environmental changes.

Document the effects of wildfire on water quality in streams draining areas in Glacier that burned in 2003, with emphasis on the effects of burn intensity. Potential post-burn effects on water quality include increased surface runoff and erosion, and leaching of nutrients, carbon, and metals from ash and soils.